Fatality rate (deaths/reported cases) using Current Day (T0), previous Day (T-1), etc as the denominator (rationale being that there is a lag of several days between a case being reported and average time of death in those cases that result in death):
Plot of my initial projection of spread of COVID-19 and 'actual' (reported) cases. Shows the uncertainty in cases numbers, due to changes in how China was reporting COVID-19 cases (clinical only, then including 'diagnostic' cases, then back to only including those confirmed by lab tests...). The trend in deaths seems to suggests that the number of reported cases is too low (as it is unlikely that the disease is getting more lethal):
Globally the rate of spread still appears to be exponentially increasing, but starting from a low number of initial cases, and has not yet shown any signs of being brought under control. The next month or so will show whether or not this outbreak will be contained globally, or if a true pandemic will evolve.
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