Wednesday, 14 May 2025

Benchmarking our SMSF performance

It is a bit pointless comparing how our SMSF has performed relative to others, as "it is what it is" to some extent. I can't jump into my time machine and change a decision made 15 years ago! But if our SMSF performance had been woeful, it might indicate that a change could improve future prospects. Fortunately our SMSF performance doesn't seem too bad -- at least in comparison to the median Growth Fund performance as reported by superguide.com.au

The data isn't quite comparable, as our SMSF annual performance (provided by eSuperFund) is for financial years, whereas the Median Growth Fund performance figures are for calendar years (they have financial year data behind a pay wall, but I am not going to pay $55 just to access the data).

The annual figures are shown below, along with historic 10-year trailing averages. The pattern shown from year-to-year is very similar, so comparing FY to CY doesn't appear to skew the comparison too badly.

The 10-yr averages show that our SMSF has outperformed the media Growth Fund by 1.06% - 2.39%. Which is line with the overall average historic annual performance since 2011 -- 9.52% vs. 7.85%. Part of this is likely due to our asset allocation being slightly more 'High Growth' than 'Growth', as shown by the higher stdev (8.27% for our SMSF vs. 6.43% for the median Growth Fund). But we are not taking on all that much extra risk (volatility) as the 2SD range is -7.03% to +26.06% from our SMSF (meaning we could expect the annual return to fall within this range 95% of the time), while the range for the median Growth Fund is quite similar: -5.01% to +20.71%. Personally I would be just as sanguine about a -7.03% negative return as a -5.01% negative return. Even the -3SD performance wouldn't be that much different: -15.3% for our SMSF vs.  -11.44% for the median Growth Fund.

Aside from slightly higher risk (and hence return), the other reason our SMSF performance is slightly better is likely due to the SMSF being quite low fees. The investment fee is only 0.29% (investing mostly in Vanguard Index Funds) and the overall admin fee for our SMSF works out to be only 0.063% based on our current balance.

Whatever the root cause for the performance differential (I won't claim it is due to my brilliant investment selection or occasional attempts at 'market timing'), over a 30-year timeframe the difference would be quite pronounced. A $100K lump sum invested with 9.52% average ROI would result in $1,528,598 vs. $100K invested with 7.85% median Growth Fund performance would result in only $965,171. That would mean the end result would be 58% more to fund retirement after 30 years!

All in all, our SMSF performance has been quite satisfactory. Which is better than the alternative ;)

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Monday, 5 May 2025

Got bored and did a trade

I was bored and clicked on a link to an MSN watchlist idea re 'Large-cap Growth'. It consists of five companies (WiseTech Global, Fisher, Paykel Healthcare, Xero, Pro Medicus and REA Group). The 1-year return was +42.59% and a quick glance at the 5-year chart shows +317.11% growth, and for maximum available historic performance (since 2016) +1,848.25%. Past performance is not an accurate predictor of future performance, but what is... it is all guesswork and good luck.

I decided to transfer $2,500 into my superhero trading app and placed a market order to buy $500 of each stock. We'll see tomorrow if the order is filled, at what price(s). I don't even know if these trade via the app as fractional shares, or if the orders will be rounded down to the nearest whole number of shares.

In any case it is just a minor experiment and we'll see how it pans out over the next 3-5 years. From highs reached in Feb this watchlist had dropped by -24% to a low point on 7 April, and are still down 11% from the Feb highs, so it either a case of buying a dip on an ongoing uptrend, or buying a dead-cat bounce on the way down.

I already had used $1,000 in my superhero trading app to purchase some VanEck Australian Long Short Complex ETF and Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares Hedged ETF last September, so I now have a total of $3,500 invested in my superhero app account, with roughly $500 invested in each of:

ALFA.AU, VGAD.AU, WTC.AU, FPH.AU, XRO.AU, PME.AU and REA.AU

The historic 1-year performance for this 'portfolio' would have been +34.83%, and for past 3-yrs +125.06%, and for past 5-yrs +238.45%. We'll see how this turns out in a few year's time.

The tax reporting shouldn't be too onerous, as I have provided my TFN to superhero when I setup the account, so the ATO should get the required annual data via the 'prefill' function.

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Thursday, 1 May 2025

Net Worth APR 2025

Chart updated to end of APR in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $30,838 (+12.64%) to $274,812 but in reality the investments ended the month in a similar position as at the end of last month (despite the large Trump tariff induced panic and recovery during the month) - the change in my stocks/cash figure was due to a combination of withdrawing $20K from my mortgage offset account to make a monthly non-concessional contribution into super, and a deposit of an unexpected gift of $50K I received from my 90 year old mother when she visited during the Easter long weekend. I told her she can have it back any time (with interest) if she needs/wants it -- but in the meantime it seems more sensible to have the money sitting in my mortgage offset account earning the equivalent of 6.29% pa, rather than her keeping $50K of cash sitting in a handbag at the back of a wardrobe. The past 6 months worth of ESPP (Employee Share Purchase Plan) contributions (10% of my salary) will be used the make the first bi-annual share purchase of my employer's shares on 1 May. I already had some share allocated to me several year ago, so it will be nice to slowly add to my holding via the ESPP from now until I retire (or get retrenched). The share price is calculated at the lower of the market price at the start and end of the 6 month period, and is then discounted by 15%. So basically by participating I get an extra 15% of 10% of my salary -- so equivalent to a 1.5% salary boost. I won't say no to free money ;)

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) increased by $39,354 (+1.98%) to $2,028,790, partly boosted by the $20K NCC made during the month. There was also a mysterious $800 'rollover' from the ATO into my employer's preferred super fund. I checked in mygov but can't see any notification regarding this payment, but it might get generated and sent out after the payment was processed. I guess it might be some 'lost super' from some casual employment, but I can't think of any likely source.

Est. valuation of our home (my half) was unchanged at $1,191,911 (for the third month in a row). And the 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) decreased slightly by -$6,025 (-0.28%) to $2,178,672. My parents have decided they will probably move straight into an aged care facility when/if they sell their current rural property, rather than move into the lake house for a couple of years as originally planned. So, rather than leave it unoccupied, I will go there a couple of times with DS1 on long weekends later this year to tidy up, clean the water tanks etc. and then probably rent it out from the start of next year. It should be able to be rented out for about $650/wk, so will be worthwhile even if I have to pay a local slashing/mowing service to cut the paddocks every month for about $500. The rent would cover the council rates and insurance (and would also make those expenses tax deductible against the rental income), and a tenant would ensure the property doesn't get vandalized (which happened once before).

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) increased by $379 (0.61%) to $62,093. I am currently adding $200 worth of gold to my Perth Mint online depository account each month.

Overall, NW increased by $64,546 (1.38%) to $4,744,287 during April, but that was mostly due to the gift from my mother.

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