This morning my short position of $50K AUD/USD spot at 0.8244 wasn't looking too bad - although the price had gone as high as 0.8308 a couple of times, in the morning it had dropped to around 0.8372 and from the 1 month plot it was looking like it might drop back further and erase my losses on this trade. Unfortunately while I was at work a lower than expected unemployment figure of 4.4% came out (general expectation had been steady at 4.5%) which meant the chances of another interest rate rise later in the year increased. I'm not sure exactly why this translated into an immediate 0.5c gain in the AUD, but it did - so in the afternoon at work I could see the AUD bobbing around 0.8315-0.8325, but I was willing to hang on for a bit longer. However, around 5pm the AUD started appeciating rapidly against the USD, so I rang home and got DW to close out my position at 0.8334, crystallising a US$450 loss!
Of course the AUD started dropping back slightly shortly after I'd bought back my $50K position. This evening it has been oscillating between 0.8310 and 0.8335, so I made a few $50K sells above 0.8322, and buys around 0.8312. In three trades I made back US$100, but I still have a lot of work to do to make back the $450 I lost by sticking with a bad position for the past three days.
I'm currently short AUD$100K at 0.8320, as the AUD is close to recent all time highs, and, having gone up over 1c in the past few days, it has a good chance of dipping back to below 0.8320 in the next few hours. If it doesn't, and starts going above 0.8330 again I'll have to close out at another loss, as I'm not game to leave my positions open while I'm asleep or at work after this recent fiasco.