Saturday, 24 April 2021

All Ords expressed as ounces of gold (in AUD) price, and compared to DJI

I found some monthly data for the Australian All Ordinaries index since 2000, and for the average monthly spot gold price expresses in AUD. A plot of the All Ordinaries index expressed in ounces of gold shows when the Australian stock market is overpriced compared to gold (eg. the index costs more than 6 ounces of gold) and vice versa (eg. the index costs less than 4 ounces of gold). Assuming one had a portfolio consisting mostly of the All Ords Index and Gold bullion (eg. 95% stocks, 5% gold), this plot could suggest when it might be prudent to go 'overweight' in stocks (eg. early 2008 and 2019 during market 'crashes') and when it might be prudent to shift to being 'overweight' in gold (eg. during 2004-2007).

Assuming one's long term asset allocation was, for example, 90% stocks and 10% gold, this might mean increasing gold to 15% allocation, or decreasing to 5% allocation, to slightly boost long term returns and reduce volality.

I also plotted how the All Ordinaries index performed compared to the US Dow Jones index since 2000. It shows that the Australian stock market was expensive compared to the DJI in 2007, but has not seen the massive increase that the US market has experienced since 2015. This explains why the US market seems 'fully priced' at current levels compared to gold, whereas the Australian market still seems to be reasonable value (at least in comparison to the price of gold).

Of course comparing the stock market indices to bullion prices doesn't preclude the possibility that BOTH stocks and gold could be simultaneously in a bubble - for example if the world was awash with capital looking for somewhere to invest at a time of no/low returns on cash and fixed interest investments. 

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