Saturday, 15 November 2008

Just a thought

It was interesting watching the US election from the outside. Obama's win seemed inevitable, given Bush's record breaking unpopularity and that the Democrats came close to winning the last couple of elections. But it was still nice to see Americans finally elect a "minority" candidate - although why someone who is equal parts "white" and "black" is universally labelled as "the first black President" seems a bit odd.

Anyhow, the enthusiasm that accompanied Obama's historic victory wasn't shared by the stock market. I wonder how the current market performance compares to first ten days post-election of previous US presidents? Is there any correlation between market reaction immediately post-election and how it performs over the one or two term period of the presidency?

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1 comment:

theWild1 said...

It would be interesting to see the comparison, but I am pretty the 10 day span after the 2004 election was much much better than this last one because of the economy alone.

I went back and looked at where the Dow was when Bush was first elected (2000), reelected (2004), and then when he technically finished his term (2008). Regardless of the highs we had, during each of those time frames the Dow dropped around 1000 points. Totally to 2000 points from start to finish.

During Clinton's 8 year span he went from 3000 - 10000.

So while it looks like the Bush regime has set as back, lets hope the new chief can do a little bit better.