2015 HSC results show how little effect the school has on student outcomes

Well, the 2015 HSC results are now out, and the usual 'school ranking' list made the front page of many Sydney newspapers, followed shortly thereafter by the usual disclaimers that the school rankings don't really mean anything. But that doesn't stop many parents thinking that getting their child into the 'right' high school from Year 7 will have a major impact on their eventual HSC results.

The actual results however, show that individual schools have very little influence on the results their students achieve -- the predominant factor influencing HSC results (in terms of % of 'Distinguished Achievement' (Band 6 or E4) subject results, and % 'All Rounder' (students with 10 units of Band 6 or E4 results in total)) is simply the ability level (as measured by the 'cut-off' selective entry test result to gain entry into the school) of the cohort of students that entered Year 7 six years earlier...

The figures below show that a school with a high 'cut-off' mark (selective schools entry test) to get into Year 7 will end up with a high percentage of Distinguished Achievement and All Rounder results when that group of students sits the HSC exam. For example, a school with a cut-off mark for entry of around 200-210 will end up with around 25%-45% "DA" and 5%-20% "AR" six years later. And a school with a higher cut-off mark (eg. 230-240) will end up with around 60%-75% "DA" and 30%-60% "AR".

The slight impact that a school can have is only apparent when a school consistently gets HSC results significantly above (or below) what you would expect based on the 'cut-off' score (ability level) that the students had when they entered Year 7. For example, NBSC Manly seems to consistently achieve slightly higher HSC results than would be expected from the 'cut-off' mark required to gain entry into Year 7 (However, even that may not be a 'real' effect - there are geographic reasons why some high ability students that might otherwise have gone to a selective high school with a higher cut-off mark decide to attend Manly. It's a long commute to get to James Ruse or Sydney Boys High from the Northern Beaches suburbs! So the correlation between 'cut-off' mark and average student ability level may sometimes be weakened by .local factors). And Sydney Technical HS seems to get a lower %DA in the HSC than one might expect from the entry cut-off scores for that cohort going into Year 7. But again, the %AR results for Sydney Technical are much closer to the expected range, so it might simply be that students choosing to attend Sydney Technical HS are not particularly strong in the compulsory English subject for the HSC, which might explain why the %DA results are depressed while their overall %AR results are more in line with the level of student ability.

[note: each school has four data points on the above charts, as the release of the 2015 results means I now how four years where I have the cut-off entry score and corresponding HSC results for that cohort]

These results also help to explain why private schools offer full and partial scholarships to attract students with high selective high school entry scores (and scholarship test score results, which are comparable) -- they are simply underwriting their future HSC results and school rankings.

It also becomes obvious why James Ruse will continue to come top of the school rankings (but might get pipped by Baulkham hills in a few years time), and which schools will continue to be at the top of such 'ranking' tables in future. You simply have to look at the current Year 7 entry cut-off scores to get a good estimate of the school's HSC results for 2021:

School (2015 cut-off mark for Year 7 entry):
Baulkham Hills (235)
James Ruse (230)
Sydney Girls (223)
Nth Sydney Boys (221)
Sydney Boys (220)
Nth Sydney Girls (219)
Hornsby Girls (216)
Fort Street (216)
Normanhurst (214)
Girraween (210)
NBSC Manly (206)
Sydney Technical HS (197)

One interesting side-effect is that selective high schools that do well in the HSC 'rankings' tend to become a more popular choice for parents choosing a school, so their 'cut-off' marks tend to increase, which in turn means a higher average ability level for the next cohort of students entering Year 7, and better HSC results five years down the track. This seems to be the trend at Baulkham Hills, and to a lesser extent at Fort Street.

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Picking a High School for DS1

The NSW selective high school entry test results came out last week, and DS1 had scored well enough to be offered a place at his second choice selective high school. That selective school has very good academic results (in the top 10 HSC results for the state last year - comparable to his first selective HS choice, and also Sydney Grammar private school, which he'd also applied to). As the school he got into is only a short direct school bus trip from where we live and has good facilities, we've decided to enrol DS1 there. Sydney Grammar had phoned late last week to offer DS1 an "interview" for a place (based on his entry and scholarship test scores), but as he wasn't being offered a scholarship ("at this stage" - whatever that means), I decided it wasn't worth him even going for an interview. We can't really afford to send him to Sydney Grammar paying full fees for six years. Especially as DS2 would also be likely qualify for entry later on. Paying 12 lots of $25K annual school fees (plus incidental expenses), doesn't seem great value compared to the "free" education available from the local selective high school. Even if money was no object (or if DS1 had been offered a half-scholarship), the extra couple of hours travel time required every day would make the selective high school an attractive alternative to Sydney Grammar. The $25K pa not spent on school fees will mean I can continue making salary sacrifice contributions into my superannuation account, and so I'll be in a much better position to fund post-graduate studies overseas by DS1 and DS2 in ten years time. Or else the money could provide a home deposit for each of the boys, or provide them with start-up funds if they want to go into business for themselves.

I'm now trying to strike the right balance between letting DS1 relax and enjoy the rest of Yr6 (now that the entry tests are all out of the way), and getting him to still do a little bit of extracurricular study so he still has good study habits when he starts high school...

I ordered a copy of 'How to Be a High School Superstar' by Cal Newport, as I've found all his blog posts about uni study techniques and time management very practical. Hopefully DS1 will read through this book and find some tips on how to better organise his study time in High School. The one thing his primary school teachers keep reporting is that he could be better organised.

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Public or Private High School? - a question of fees, fees and more fees

2011 will be a big year for DS1 - he's in the final year of Primary School (Year 6 in the NSW system) and will be sitting the selective high schools test and private high schools selection and scholarship tests over the next couple of months. Fortunately there is a good local public High School available (the one I attended), so it won't be a major drama if he doesn't get a place in one of the four selective high schools he nominated on his selective high school test application. I've also had him on the "waiting list" for Sydney Grammar School (one of the state's best private high schools) since he was one year old, but he may not get a spot as a) those who have been attending the Sydney Grammar Prep School for the seven years of primary education get automatic entry, b) sons of "old boys" and those with siblings already attending get higher priority than those on the "waiting list" to enter in Year 7. In any event, with the high annual fees (At AUD$22941 per annum (for Forms I - VI, non-boarding), the tuition fees are among the highest of any secondary day school in the country) DS1 would have to do very well on the scholarship test and win one of the dozen or so available scholarships for us to be able to afford sending him there for six years of secondary education (especially as DS2 is also on the Sydney Grammar waiting list, so would probably also attend Sydney Grammar if DS1 went there).

An article in today's SMH states that private school fees have risen 100% over the past ten years. So I have to wonder if it would really be worth spending the large amounts of money required to send DS1 and DS2 to private school anyhow. Sydney Grammar was originally established as a "feeder school" for Sydney University, but nowadays there is no problem getting a place at Sydney Uni if you get a good enough mark in the Higher School Certificate exams in Year 12. And, depending on your field of study, one of the other universities in Sydney woulde be a better choice (eg. NSW, UTS, or Macquarie). And if DS1 doesn't do well on the HSC there's always UWS ;) . These days the high school you attended doesn't have any direct influence on university entrance, and I suspect a private school education has also lost a lot of the career benefits the "old boys network" used to have in the past (similar to how membership of the Masons used to open more doors in the past). There seem to be a lot of "old boys" that ended up with fairly mediocre middle management careers despite the benefits of attending private school for six years - and in those cases the money spent on fees would probably have been better spent on setting the children up in their own business after completing uni.

So, although it would be nice for DS1 to win a half (or full) scholarship and be able to attend Sydney Grammar, I don't think he would be significantly better off than if he is able to attend a selective high school. Academically, he might even be get more benefit from selective high school than private school. If he does well on the upcoming tests and has the choice of either a half-scholarship to Sydney Grammar or entry to one of the better selective high schools, we'll probably choose selective high school due to the cost of private school. On the other hand, if we were choosing between a half-scholarship for Sydney Grammar or attending his fourth choice Selective High School, we'd probably try to scrape together the funds to send him to Sydney Grammar. In reality, DS1 will most likely end up attending the local non-selective public High School. He didn't do well enough on the "Opportunity Class" (years 5-6 of Primary School) test two years ago to win an OC place (I did), so, although there are slightly more Selective High School places available than OC places, he may not have the opportunity to attend either private school or selective High School.

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