DS1 HSC results out

DS1 got his HSC marks via email last night, and sent them via IM to DW and myself (he is currently on a train between Vienna and Venice - halfway through his 10-week post-HSC European back-packing holiday). His results were close to what he expected, or slightly better:

Economics 93/100 band 6
Mathematics 90/100 band 6
Modern History 90/100 band 6
Software D&D 89/100 band 5
English Adv 87/100 band 5
English Ext1 43/50 band E3
Chemistry 83/100 band 5

Plugging these numbers into an ATAR calculator suggests he should get an ATAR of around 95.75, which should be plenty for him to get offered a place in his first choice uni course (Commerce/Computer Science double degree at UNSW), especially as UNSW offers 'bonus points' for getting top results in the top bands in English Advanced, English Extension 1, Mathematics and they also offer bonus points for having completed the Gold Duke of Edinburgh award.

His actual ATAR will be released tomorrow morning, and the first round of university offers will come out on December 21. I'm very happy with his HSC results, and delighted that he should be getting into his first preference uni course. Hopefully DS1 gets home safely from his European adventure at the end of January, and is keen to apply himself to his uni studies in 2018.

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Uni choices

The past two Saturdays I've gone to uni open days with DS1, to help him decide which university/degree choices he may put (and in what order) on his UAC (Universities Admissions Centre) next year. These days most information is available online, so we thought it best to spend time attending open days this year, rather than next year when DS1 will be busy studying for his HSC exams. Next year he will have to choose up to nine courses (in preference order) for his UAC application. The UAC application currently costs $41 for Year 12 students, as long as application is made within the initial period (this year it is 3 Aug - 30 Sep). Late applications cost more (eg. $166 for applications made between 1 Oct -  31 Oct), As you can alter your preferences as many times as you like, it is best to apply before the initial 30 Sep deadline.

DS1 is mostly interested in Computer Science and Economics, so he is looking at doing a double degree in Commerce/Economics and Computer Science at either Sydney University or The University of New South Wales. At the moment he is leaning towards making UNSW his first choice, as he is familiar with the campus and already knows some of the faculty in computer science (having attended several courses there). He would also get credit for the first year programming course he did there last year, which he thinks would free up some time to concentrate on the compulsory math courses in year 1 (he is finding some of the subjects in Math Ext 1 a bit difficult, and has already decided he won't attempt doing Ext 2 Math for his HSC).

Another reason to preference UNSW over USyd is that their double degree in Commerce(Financial Economics)/Science(Computer Science) would only take four years (at ~$10,500 pa HELP fees), whereas the similar double degree course at Sydney Uni is a five year course. My view is that it would be better to do the double degree in four years and put the extra year/cost towards then doing a 1.5 year long Master of Economic Analysis post-grad course at Sydney University (if he wants to). UNSW also seems to have a more structured process for integrating overseas study at a one of 200 'partner institutions' in 39 countries as part of their undergraduate programs.

The ATAR cut-off for a double degree in Commerce/Computer Science at USyd is around 95.00, whereas 'on paper' the UNSW cut-off is slightly higher (96.50). However, Sydney University doesn't offer 'flexible entry' for the Bachelor of Commerce and Bachelor of Science course, where UNSW offers up to 10 'bonus points' - he could get 2 'HSC Plus bonus points for getting a band 5/6 result in Advanced English, and another 2 'HSC Plus" bonus points for getting a band 5/6 result in Mathematics, Also, if he finishes off the requirements for his Gold Duke of Edinburgh award to be finalised/approved by around this time next year, he would also get an additional 2 'EAP' (Elite Athletes and Performers) bonus points. So, the 'real' ATAR required for entry into the UNSW Commerce/Science double degree could be as low as 90.50.

As a fall-back position he will probably put Science/Computer Science at UNSW and Computer Science and Technology at USyd as his third and fourth choices, as the ATAR cut-offs for those courses is considerably lower (92.00 and 81.30 respectively), and he can always apply to transfer to the commerce/computer science double degree at the end of his first year (if his results are good enough).

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2015 HSC results show how little effect the school has on student outcomes

Well, the 2015 HSC results are now out, and the usual 'school ranking' list made the front page of many Sydney newspapers, followed shortly thereafter by the usual disclaimers that the school rankings don't really mean anything. But that doesn't stop many parents thinking that getting their child into the 'right' high school from Year 7 will have a major impact on their eventual HSC results.

The actual results however, show that individual schools have very little influence on the results their students achieve -- the predominant factor influencing HSC results (in terms of % of 'Distinguished Achievement' (Band 6 or E4) subject results, and % 'All Rounder' (students with 10 units of Band 6 or E4 results in total)) is simply the ability level (as measured by the 'cut-off' selective entry test result to gain entry into the school) of the cohort of students that entered Year 7 six years earlier...

The figures below show that a school with a high 'cut-off' mark (selective schools entry test) to get into Year 7 will end up with a high percentage of Distinguished Achievement and All Rounder results when that group of students sits the HSC exam. For example, a school with a cut-off mark for entry of around 200-210 will end up with around 25%-45% "DA" and 5%-20% "AR" six years later. And a school with a higher cut-off mark (eg. 230-240) will end up with around 60%-75% "DA" and 30%-60% "AR".

The slight impact that a school can have is only apparent when a school consistently gets HSC results significantly above (or below) what you would expect based on the 'cut-off' score (ability level) that the students had when they entered Year 7. For example, NBSC Manly seems to consistently achieve slightly higher HSC results than would be expected from the 'cut-off' mark required to gain entry into Year 7 (However, even that may not be a 'real' effect - there are geographic reasons why some high ability students that might otherwise have gone to a selective high school with a higher cut-off mark decide to attend Manly. It's a long commute to get to James Ruse or Sydney Boys High from the Northern Beaches suburbs! So the correlation between 'cut-off' mark and average student ability level may sometimes be weakened by .local factors). And Sydney Technical HS seems to get a lower %DA in the HSC than one might expect from the entry cut-off scores for that cohort going into Year 7. But again, the %AR results for Sydney Technical are much closer to the expected range, so it might simply be that students choosing to attend Sydney Technical HS are not particularly strong in the compulsory English subject for the HSC, which might explain why the %DA results are depressed while their overall %AR results are more in line with the level of student ability.

[note: each school has four data points on the above charts, as the release of the 2015 results means I now how four years where I have the cut-off entry score and corresponding HSC results for that cohort]

These results also help to explain why private schools offer full and partial scholarships to attract students with high selective high school entry scores (and scholarship test score results, which are comparable) -- they are simply underwriting their future HSC results and school rankings.

It also becomes obvious why James Ruse will continue to come top of the school rankings (but might get pipped by Baulkham hills in a few years time), and which schools will continue to be at the top of such 'ranking' tables in future. You simply have to look at the current Year 7 entry cut-off scores to get a good estimate of the school's HSC results for 2021:

School (2015 cut-off mark for Year 7 entry):
Baulkham Hills (235)
James Ruse (230)
Sydney Girls (223)
Nth Sydney Boys (221)
Sydney Boys (220)
Nth Sydney Girls (219)
Hornsby Girls (216)
Fort Street (216)
Normanhurst (214)
Girraween (210)
NBSC Manly (206)
Sydney Technical HS (197)

One interesting side-effect is that selective high schools that do well in the HSC 'rankings' tend to become a more popular choice for parents choosing a school, so their 'cut-off' marks tend to increase, which in turn means a higher average ability level for the next cohort of students entering Year 7, and better HSC results five years down the track. This seems to be the trend at Baulkham Hills, and to a lesser extent at Fort Street.

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HSC Subject selection

DS1 has just gone through the process of selecting which subjects he will do in years 11-12 for his Higher School Certificate (HSC).

He was already enrolled in Preliminary SDD (Software Design & Development) this year (via distance education through HSCOnline) as an 'accelerate' student, so will be doing his HSC exams for that subject while he in in Year 11. Although computer programming is one of his favourite subjects (he started the Year 9 ITC course while he was in Year 8, but couldn't do it last year as it was no longer offered by HSCOnline), it doesn't 'scale' very well (so, unless he gets in the top 1% in that subject it is unlikely to be included in the 'best 10 units' used to calculate his ATAR for university entry). So it is probably a good idea to get in done while he is in Year 11 next year so he can concentrate on the more demanding (and better scaling) HSC subjects like Ext 2 Math while he is in Year 12. He is also doing a lot of other extracurricular computing activities this year (he completed the UNSW Computing 1 course( 'HS1917') earlier this year, and will be doing his week of 'work experience' at NICTA in term 4), so once his SDD final exam is completed early in term 4 next year he can have a 'gap year' from computing studies while he concentrates on his other HSC subjects.

For his 'real' HSC subjects he is doing English Advanced (no choice about that as 2 units of English has to be included in the HSC and in the 10 units used for ATAR calculation, and everyone at his selective High School does English Advanced rather than Standard) and English Ext 1 (although it's not his best subject, so he may drop English Ext 1 in Year 12 -- although it 'scales' well there isn't any point if he isn't at least in the 'top half' of the class). He might also have to drop Ext 1 English to make room for his other subjects and Ext 2 Maths in his school timetable.

He is also doing Maths and Math Ext 1 in Year 11, and intends adding Math Ext 2 in Year 12 (if his results are good enough). Math Ext 2 'scales' extremely well, so if he has the ability it can be quite time-effective compared to some other subjects that can take an inordinate amount of time (especially those that involve a 'major work' project).

His other subjects are Chemistry, Physics, Economics and Business Studies. He is quite interested in both science and finance/economics so those subject choices should suit him quite well. These subjects also happen to 'scale' quite well (if you achieve a decent result) as they are popular with the more able students. Given that most of the students attending selective high schools have been drawn from the 'top 2%' of students in the state (based on the entry tests done at the end of primary school), he should do fairly well in his HSC mark and ATAR ranking as long as he is in the 'top half' in each subject at his school. Ideally he should be aiming for the top quarter in each class, and possible try for 'first place' in some of his better subjects (he came first in Commerce last year, so he might do quite well in Economics and Business Studies).

Overall, his HSC preliminary subjects (year 11) at school for next year are:
English Advanced + Ext 1 (ie. 3 units)
Mathematics + Ext 1 (ie. 3 units)
Business Studies (2 units)
Chemistry (2 units)
Economics (2 units)
Physics (2 units)
and HSC Software Design and Development  (2 units) taken via distance education.

This is a total of 16 units, which is quite a heavy workload! Fortunately aside from Judo he doesn't have any time consuming extracurricular activities, as he is no longer studying piano.

In his HSC (year 12) at school he will probably be taking some combination of:
English Advanced (+ Ext 1 ?)
Mathematics + Ext 1 (+ Ext 2 ?)
Business Studies
Chemistry
Economics
Physics

However, as the school rules (and timetabling restrictions) only allow enrollment in 14 units or less for Year 12, he may have to drop a subject if he continues with English Ext 1 and also wants to do Maths Ext 2. He'll be making that decision around this time next year.

Although DS1 will be very busy, I don't think he'll be under too much pressure, as he has no interest in studying either medicine or law at university, and so he should easily get a sufficient ATAR to enrol in whatever science, engineering, computing or economics course he finally decides upon (he is still thinking about what he wants to 'do' at university). It will be interesting to see if he ends up doing well enough to qualify for a university scholarship though...

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