* resource tax - this seems a no-brainer given the high profit margins currently enjoyed by the big miners due to the resource boom
* superannuation changes - I will be pleasantly surprised if Labor doesn't fiddle with the superannuation laws. The most obvious way to get some more revenue from the "rich" will be to eliminate the recently introduced tax-free status for superannuation income during the pension phase. Self-funded retirees are too "rich" for most of them to be Labor voters, so Mr Rudd will be happy to tax them more. The revenue will probably be used to increase the tax benefits of superannuation for low-income workers. Apparently a flat 15% tax on super contributions isn't "fair" as high-income workers get a bigger "benefit" -- conveniently forgetting that the bigger benefit is due to paying a much higher rate of tax in the first place.
* capital gains - I suspect the 50% tax rate "discount" applied to long-term capital gains will be removed or reduced. And I doubt the cost-base indexation it replaced won't be brought back in, unless it is also introduced for savings account interest (ie. only savings account interest above the CPI is taxed). That would fit in with the rumours about making savings for low-income workers more attractive.
* negative gearing - I doubt this will be axed (it had too much impact on housing investment last time changes were attempted under Keating), but it may be "quarantined" ie. Interest costs are only deductible against income (rent) from the same investment type. They already have similar rules relating to different types of capital gains.
I'm sure there will be lots of surprises in the Henry report and the May budget. But I'm not expecting them to be pleasant ones for this middle-income "working family" -- "tax effective" investments are likely to come under serious attack.
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