The latest monthly sales figures (February) for the suburbs of our home and investment property have just come out. There continues to be a lot of "noise" in the data, with monthly average sales prices being affected by the mix of properties sold in the month, but the general uptrend in prices still continues and has formed into a mild house price "boom". However the recent series of interest rate rises by the reserve bank and additional increases in home loan rates due to the global credit crunch are starting to dampen house sales, especially at the lower end of the market. The 12-month gain in average price for the two suburbs we're invested in was around 14.5%, compared to only 5.8% a year ago.
The graph below shows that the rate of property price increase in our suburbs took off in early 2007, with the annualised price change going above the long-term rate of 6% and continuing on past 10% pa. My new worth goal for 2008 assumes an increase in our property valuations of 8%, which may turn out to be conservative. However, it looks as though rising interest rates are starting to bite, so the current housing boom may be relatively short-lived and weak compared to previous Sydney property cycles.
Copyright Enough Wealth 2007