Wednesday, 9 May 2012

Australian Federal Budget 2012

Overall the budget looks suspiciously 'creative' and the projected 'budget surplus' fairly optimistic given that budget projections have not ended up being terribly close to reality in previous Labor budgets. In any case, the actual 'surplus' won't be known until after the next Federal election, so I guess the surplus is being manufactured more as a political tool for Labor's re-election campaign than as a genuine economic tool. Even if the small surpluses projected in the budget for forward years does materialise, the amounts will be totally inadequate to cover any meaningful 'stimulus spending' in the event of another GFC impacting Australia down the track.

On a personal level, we'll miss out on all the budget 'goodies' such as the cash handouts to compensate 'working families' for the impact of the carbon tax of cost of living or to help paying education expenses for our kids, as our combined family 'adjusted' taxable income is just over the FTB A cut-off. As far as Centrelink is concerned, any net investment losses are added back in when calculating our 'income'. I'm sorely tempted to liquidate some of my stock investments that are still in the red, and use the proceeds to pay off a large chunk of the corresponding margin loans. It makes no sense to continue to use borrowed funds to invest when the interest rate on the borrowed funds are stuck around 8%-10% and total ROI (dividends and capital gains) is less than 5%. Since the GFC I've been hoping that the eventual post-GFC recovery would boost the Australian stock market (and hence put my geared investments back in the black), but that has started to look unlikely in the medium term, with the ASX200 remaining below 4500 (well below the pre-GFC high of 6800+) despite the 'mining boom' and Australia supposedly having one of the best performing economies in the developed world, post GFC. How this can be when the US stock market is back to pre-GFC levels despite their enormous government deficit and fire-sale housing market is a bit of a mystery to me.

The changes to the tax rates for 2012-13 for low-middle income earners will mean that DW will pay less tax on her part-time salary and her share of the rental property's net income, and the lowered average tax rates applicable to taxable incomes below 80,000 (shown in the graph below) will mean there is even less point for me to use negatively geared stock investments to reduce my taxable income. However, the raised tax-free threshold is nowhere near as generous as it first appears, as most of the effect of raising the tax-free threshold to $18,200 will be offset by phasing out the Low Income Tax Offset. And by raising the bottom two tax rates at the same time as raising the tax-free threshold, the tax savings really only apply to those earning under $80,000 pa. Overall I think the tax changes will mean DW gets an extra $10 a week or so in her pay packet, while I'll be better off by about 6 cents a week!

With the higher ($50,000 vs. $25,000) annual cap on concessionally taxed superannuation contributions (eg. salary sacrifice and SGL amounts) for those over 50 having less than 500,000 in their superannuation account now not scheduled to come into effect until 2014 (assuming it eventually does happen!), next financial year may be a good opportunity to wind back some of my geared stock investments and plan to investment more of my salary via superannuation rather than using after-tax income to make tax-deductible interest payments on investment loans.



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Sunday, 29 April 2012

Most popular posts

I'm not sure that these are my "best" or most useful/informative posts, but according to blogger they are the most popular posts on this site. Go figure.

The Story of Story and Clark Pianos
Mar 20, 2009, 1 comment

401K Account Balances by Age
Aug 27, 2007

Coin counting machine at CommBank
Sep 26, 2009, 4 comments

Financial Literacy for High School Students
Mar 15, 2008, 4 comments

Why the First Million is the Hardest
May 20, 2007, 3 comments

Property Price Indices
Apr 12, 2012

McDonalds pulls the plug on free access to Maths Online
Dec 21, 2011, 2 comments

Displaying the All Ordinaries Index on Desktop
Dec 31, 2008, 1 comment

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Another rant against the banks

The SMH has an article about banks data mining to work out which of their customers might be "susceptible" to product offers such as investment funds, superannuation, or increased credit limits. While there are certainly cases of people getting into trouble with excessive/inappropriate levels of credit being provided by banks, I can't see that simply sending people information (when they've "opted in" to receiving it from their bank) about products they are likely to actually want to accept is such a bad thing. What does annoy me a bit is when I receive such product information in the mail, read and discard it, only to be phoned up a few days later by some sales rep wanting to confirm that I received the information. All too often I have to say several times that I don't want to product being offered, and eventually have to hang up on the call, as the sales rep keeps trying to "explain" the wonderful features of the product being pushed. Rather than ban product information/offers being sent to customers whose data suggest that are more likely than average to want the product, the more sensible regulation would be to enforce a "no means no" policy for sales staff. So if a sales rep doesn't terminate a sales call the first time a customers says "no thanks", you could make a complaint (and the recorded conversation would be checked by the relevant complaint authority to check the sales rep was following the guidelines).
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Thursday, 12 April 2012

Property Price Indices

Browsing through Moomin's recent posts, I was reminded of the Australian Property Price indices RPdata started publishing recently. Aside from daily index values for each capital city market, they also have a rolling 12-month chart of the indices available here. This chart shows that Sydney property prices have improved a bit since hitting a low point in December 2011. Hopefully this means that my property investment price estimates will also increas in coming months, as my monthly NW calculations rely on monthly sales data for a specific post code area, and have a lag of about three months (ie. my March NW property figure was calculated using the 12-mo to end of Jan price data).

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