Friday, 25 February 2022

Russo-Ukraine war

Interesting to see that although the Dow has dropped about 6% since the latest Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory commenced, and the German DAX has dropped about 8%, the Australian market is only down about 2% and was steady today. Perhaps there is an 'on the beach' effect at work? (we might not survive WWIII, but at least we might survive a bit longer than NATO countries, Russia or China).

Anyhow, I feel sorry for Ukraine. It's a bit tough if your long-term survival as an independent country depends on joining a defense alliance like NATO, but the NATO rules prevent a country from joining if there is any 'active conflict' within that country. Just by occupying Crimea and backing rebels in the Donbas region, Putin effectively prevented Ukraine from joining NATO for the past decade or so, and he then used their desire to maybe, someday join NATO as an excuse for launching an all-out invasion in 'self-defense'. A strange combination of Orwellian "War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is peace" mentality with the catch-22 bureaucracy of only being able to join NATO if you don't currently need to join NATO.

I can only think that if Sweden and Finland are contemplating ever joining NATO they had better do it asap - otherwise they could find themselves ineligible due to a manufactured internal conflict (e.g. if Putin grabbed the Aland Islands or Gotland, or simply supported some internal conflict to erupt).

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