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Saturday, 24 October 2020

Betting on the US election

It's quite surreal watching the US Presidential election campaign from afar - the disconnect between much of what the US President says and the reality of the terrible loss of life being experienced due to Covid-19 in the US does not seem to be reflected in the voting intentions showing up in US opinion polls. One would think that in this sort of situation a sitting President would be much further behind than the ~8% the polls suggest. There must be a huge number of voters that simply vote Democrat or Republican regardless of who the candidate is or the current economic/health situation or the candidates policy details (not that US Presidential elections appear to give much weight to actual policy platform details).

The voter intention polls got the outcome of the last election very wrong, so the current poll numbers need to be treated with caution, but I still find it hard to believe that Trump can claw his way back into contention this late in the campaign, especially as a large portion of US voters have already cast their ballot via pre-polling. So I decided I'd place a small wager ($10) on Biden to win the 2020 Election, and I also put another $5 bet on Biden getting between 49-52% of the popular vote, and another $5 on him achieving between 52-55% of the popular vote.

We'll see how it turns out, but I'm guessing there might be a small 'shy Trumper' effect that reduces the actual popular vote for Biden down to about 51-53% in the final wash-up.

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