Thursday 5 September 2013

Congratulations, Prime Minister Abbott

While, as they like to say, "the only poll that counts is on election day", it looks like we won't have to stay up very late on Saturday night to know the election result - so I'll get in early and 'call' the election as a resounding win to the coalition. My guess is about 87 seats will go to Libs-Nats, 60 to Labor, and 3 'other'. As a sweetener the $5 online bet I made about six months ago should add a few more dollars to the small win I made better against the Aussies winning the Ashes series in the UK ;) It will be interesting to see how things pan out over the next term of parliament - if the global economy recovers and Australia gets back to trend growth rates, unemployment could be trending down and the federal budget deficit diminishing, which should put the coalition in a good position to win a second term. From the coalition's points of view, the large deficit, slow growth rate and increasing unemployment rate left behind by Labor should make it easy to maintain the mantle of 'sound economic managers' during their first term(s) in office. The big question will be whether or not the result on Saturday is such a convincing win for the coalition that they are tempted to call a double dissolution early next year in an attempt to gain control of both Houses of Parliament. The trigger could be either the Carbon Tax or Paid Parental Leave legislation being blocked twice in the Senate by the Greens and Labor. While it is unlikely that the coalition can win a clear majority in the Senate in a double dissolution election (given that the Greens appear to have a fairly solid ~10% of the vote), if they win a large enough majority in the Reps next Saturday they may think it is worth taking a punt. ps. I decided I am pretty much a Liberal supporter these days, so I became a 'card-carrying' Liberal Party member last week. As I'm enrolled as a post-grad student I took the opportunity to pay the 'student' membership rate ;) Subscribe to Enough Wealth. Copyright 2006-2013

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