In response to that post, Chris has asked
"with the recent rally, are you getting close to a buy trigger?"
My answer is, yes, the data is getting close to my trigger conditions - today the market adjusted close was above the current trigger level of 3422 for the first time. According to my current version of the model, if it closes at or above 3422 for another four days in a row the bear market has bottomed out according to the "EW indicator" ;). I don't actually have any free cash to invest (unless I wanted to boost my margin loan LVRs back above 90%!), so all it will mean to me is that I dollar cost average my superannuation contributions into the Vanguard High Growth Fund as soon as they are contributed by my employer, rather than accumulating some cash.
I noticed that today Mark Mobius (a prominent investment manager with a cool surname) also "called" the start of the next bull market. I'll give it another four days to make sure ;)
It's funny how the market may have bottomed out just as I was dumping a large portion (around 25%) of my stock portfolio! I seem to have reasonably good "insight" into the market, but absolutely no ability to make profitable use of that knowledge.
Perhaps I just have an inordinate amount of "bad luck" when it comes to investing - if I'd rolled over my index put options back in Dec '07 and was now sitting on a pile of cash ready to invest close to the market bottom, I'd look like a genius. Instead, the average annualised ROI on my total investment portfolio (including non-stock investments) since 2003 is currently just under 0%pa!
Date Adj Close*
data from http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EAORD
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