Sunday, 30 May 2021

The financial benefits of Medicare in Australia - a personal example

Medicare is Australia’s universal health insurance scheme. It guarantees all Australians (and some overseas visitors) access to a wide range of health and hospital services at low or no cost. Australians make more than 150 million visits to a GP every year. Medicare — the public health insurance system — helps pay for those visits, hospital treatments, and prescription medicines (that are on the PBS list).

For example, I've had severe atopic dermatitis (eczema) since I was a young child. Atopic dermatitis is long lasting (chronic) and tends to flare periodically. It may be accompanied by asthma or hay fever (I had asthma as a child but grew out of it, but I still have severe allergies such as dust mites, mould, rye grass etc). No cure has been found for atopic dermatitis. In my case it also resulted in two bouts of Cellulitis that could have killed me.

The traditional treatments include topical corticosteroids (creams and ointments) and oral prednisone or prednisolone for the most severe 'flare-ups', although often the disease relapses once medication is discontinued. So for the past fifty or so years I've benefitted from paying the basic PBS (Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme) amount (currently around $40 per prescription) rather than the full cost of prescribed medications.

As DS1 had even more severe eczema than myself (he was hospitalized several times as an infant and young child for both eczema flare-ups and severe asthma), and DS2 has eczema and asthma similar to what I had as a child, we have still ended up paying several thousand dollars each year for visits to our GP and specialists (partly refunded via Medicare) and for prescription medications. But a large part of the costs was covered by Medicare, as was the cost of public hospital treatments. We also currently have private medical insurance (paid for by my employer) which comes in handy for 'elective' hospital treatments (such as cataract operations etc.), dental care, and has also reimbursed us for ambulance costs (which aren't covered by Medicare) and the few occasions we have used private hospital accommodation (such as for my cataract operations).

Recently a new biological treatment for severe eczema called Dupixent came onto the market. Rather than being a topical treatment (applied to the external skin) it is an injected human monoclonal antibody that inhibits signaling of the interleukin IL-4 and IL-14 which are linked to the subcutaneous inflammation that causes severe eczema symptoms. This medication is delivered via a single injection every fortnight, but before it was added to the PBS schedule each injection cost around $750! My immunologist specialist had told me that a few of his other patients had been on Duprixent - either paying the full cost 'out of pocket' (around A$22,000 pa), or were covered by an overseas medical insurance policy that included this treatment. However, even though I earn a decent wage, paying $22,000 pa made this treatment effectively unaffordable.

Dupixent had been evaluated as effective by the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) several years ago, but had twice been rejected for inclusion on the PBS registry due to the cost (and the limited budget allocation for PBS). Fortunately it turned out to be 'third time lucky' and this medication was finally added to the PBS list on 1 March 2021, at an estimated cost of A$270 million pa. It is estimated that this medicine will be of benefit to more than 3,600 Australians. Turns out that I'm one of them, with my specialist getting approval and writing me a prescription for Duprixent on Friday. I'll collect the first batch of medicine from my local pharmacy next week and I have another appointment with my specialist in a fortnight to get the initial two injections and to be instructed on how to self-inject the single injection required every fortnight.

Hopefully with this new treatment my eczema will significantly improve - clinical trials showed that around 50% of patients had their eczema improve by 75% after 16 weeks of treatment, and around 75% of patients after one year. Switching from taking immunosuppressant medication will also remove the need to have regular blood tests, and will remove the increased risk of skin cancer that the immunosuppressant treatments have.

From a financial point of view, I'll be joining the ranks of Australian tax-payers that actually pay no net tax (receive more value in benefits received than they pay in tax) as the income tax on my salary is around A$28,000 pa and the value of the PBS subsidy for Duprixent will be worth around A$22,000 pa. When added to the benefit of DS2 receiving free pubic school education at a selective High School I'll be getting more back in taxpayer-funded benefits than I am paying out in income tax. Long live socialized health and education!

Once I reach pension age (66) I may also be able to get a Commonwealth Seniors Health Card that would reduce the cost of PBS prescriptions from $41.30 to only $6.60. While I won't ever qualify for the Age Pension (due to the Asset Test Threshold for a partial pension being just over A$1 million of assessable assets for a home-owning couple), there is only an deemed income cap of A$89,920 for a couple to be able to obtain the Seniors Health Card. There is no assets test for the Health Card. Although we will hopefully receive more than A$90K pa in actual income during our retirement, the deemed income will be significantly lower as the deeming rate is 2.25%. This means we would have to have more than $4 million of financial assets (excluding the family home) before we would be ineligible for the Seniors Health Card. In any case, whether I pay $41.30 or $6.60 per prescription will make little difference. 

From the Federal budget point of view, the fact that the Regeneron patent on Dupixent will expire on 27 October 2029 means that the cost of having this medication on the PBS list should greatly reduce once it goes 'off-patent' as other manufacturers will then be able to produce 'generic' versions of the medication at a much lower cost to the Federal government. There are apparently also other similar biologic treatments in the pipe-line, so the cost of Dupixent may also fall due to competition before the patent expires.

Side note: apparently in the US 82% of medical insurance plans cover Dupixent at a co-pay of $60-$125. So the out-of-pocket cost of Dupixent would end up similar to our cost on Medicare (but the average cost of health insurance in the US is around $6,000 pa, whereas the Medicare Levy in Australia is only 1-1.5% for medium and high income earners who do not have private hospital cover). Around 8% of people in the US have no health insurance.

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Saturday, 29 May 2021

End of MAY 2021 "12% solution" portfolio changes

For the end of May the emailed trading signal is to invest 60% in SPY and 40% in JNK. As this is a change in allocation from last month, it requires selling MDY and buying SPY. When the market is open (Monday night my time) my monthly trade will therefore be:

SELL MDY : SPDR S&P MidCap 400 Index Fund

BUY SPY : SPDR S&P 500 Index Fund 

HOLD JNK : SPDR Barclays High_yield Corporate Bond Fund

According to the monthly newsletter, the 2020 performance for this model was +40.6% and for 2021 YTD performance is now +11.2%. My YTD performance is only 6.78% due to a combination of timing differences, buy/sell spread, trading costs, not having an exact 60:40 asset allocation (due to rounding down to the nearest tradeable quantity) and the fact the my '12% solution' portfolio is on my IG trading account which also includes some ASIA (Betshares Asia Technology Tigers ETF) which has been trending down in recent months.

I suspect that due to the small value of this portfolio (around $10,000) the trading costs and account keeping fees will be a massive drag on my actual ROI compared to the 'model portfolio'. It would probably be better to implement the "12% solution" via an account that has zero trading costs and no account keeping fees, but I can't be bothered opening yet another trading account for what is basically an experiment. I'll probably close all positions at the end of June, close the IG account and repay some of my portfolio loan, as the potential profit doesn't justify the extra calculations I'll need to do for my annual tax return for this account. 

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Wednesday, 12 May 2021

Budget projections bad news for my off-the-plan apartment investment

While unit (apartment) prices in the suburb where I bought my $1m 'off-the-plan' unit have remained fairly steady during the pandemic, last night's federal budget projections regarding the resumption of immigration to Australia mean that I'm unlikely to see much increase in the unit's value before I need have to take out a mortgage when the unit construction is completed in early 2023. I had hoped that international travel and migration levels might already be getting back to 'normal' by the end of next year, but the budget forecasts have cut the population forecast for 2023 by 41,000 compared to the figure in last October's delayed budget. And NSW is expected to have a net population decrease of 20,000 or more each year until 2023-24.

So it looks like rental yields and price appreciation will be weak for my investment unit at least 2025. While I'm still working full-time and can benefit from negative gearing that won't be too much of a problem, but it would have nice for the unit valuation to exceed my purchase price when construction is completed, and for the cashflow deficit to be as small as possible.

Immigration levels might yet pick up faster than predicted in this latest forecast, but they could also be worse than anticipated. In the longer term, hopefully the current fall in new unit approvals (down 26% Y-o-Y to near decade lows) will mean a more favourable demand:supply ratio once immigration levels eventually return to normal.

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Monday, 10 May 2021

Good news and bad news

On a positive note, the ASX200 closed at an all-time high of 7172.8, finally surpassing the previous closing high set in Feb 2020 (just before the pandemic's impact), and within 25 points of the all-time intraday high.

On a less happy note, a few days after Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian accused Australia of "operating with a Cold War mentality against China" the Chinese State-run outlet The Global Times published an editorial from its editor-in-chief Hu Xijin that included the suggestion that "China make a plan to impose retaliatory punishment against Australia once it militarily interferes in the cross-Straits situation" and that "The plan should include long-range strikes on the military facilities and relevant key facilities on Australian soil if it really sends its troops to China’s offshore areas and combats against the PLA (People’s Liberation Army)." Of course an editorial in a Chinese state-controlled newspaper isn't exactly the same as a speech by a sitting Australian politician, but its a little bit of the 'pot calling the kettle black'.

Meanwhile China continues to buy more than 60% of its imported iron ore from Australia, and switching to an alternative supply (such as a new mine at Simandou in West Africa) could take 5-10 years (or be very expensive if China just went shopping to existing global suppliers for additional iron ore). In that context I'm not sure that long-range missile strikes on Australian soil would do China all that much good, especially if they were in the middle of an invasion of a Taiwan supported by the USA and Japan at the time.

Hopefully we can get back to the pretense that the 'one China' policy means (to us) that Taiwan will remain 'Chinese' without losing its democratic self-government, while at the same time meaning (to Beijing) that Taiwan will eventually/inevitably come under direct party control. Unfortunately the rapid build-up of Chinese military capability, combined with their future demographics and the leader's advancing years, means that the prospects of 'direct action' to 'reunite' Taiwan with mainland China seems to be growing each year.

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