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Tuesday, 3 March 2020

Market rebound - rationality or wishful thinking?

The US Market was up a healthy 5% or so overnight, due to the Fed making reassuring noises and a teleconference being organised by G7 finance heads to 'deal' with the economic implications of the corona virus. Now, this can either be a rational response to a rate cut that will boost economic activity and make equity returns relatively more attractive, or a 'dead cat bounce' or relief rally based on flawed premise that the outbreak will be contained within Q1 (ie. by the end of March) and have relatively little impact on global economic growth.

My guess is that this situation isn't as amenable to fiscal stimulus and rates cuts as most economic weaknesses, and I'm happy to sit on my hands for the next month or two and see how things develop. If I was still geared or highly invested in equities I'd be looking at the current bounce as a 'second chance' to tilt away from growth/equity investments while prices are still reasonably close to recent highs.

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