Saturday, 13 June 2026

SpaceX and my XOVR experiment - day 1

Well, SpaceX IPO finally arrived. There was quite a bit of public 'buzz' with the massive size of the IPO stirring up the mainstream media, and lots of 'mum and dad' investors (aka 'mug punters') speculating about whether or not to invest in the IPO (not that many of them had access to the IPO, so would likely have been piling in on day 1. Even at my workplace I overheard a few client phonecalls where apparently they were thinking about investing in SpaceX. So it was reminiscent of the 'stock tips' and speculation in the lead-up to the Great Depression:

"In the winter of 1928 Joe Kennedy, father of JFK and major stock market player, stopped to get his shoes shined. The shoeshine boy leaned in and said, “Buy Hindenburg”. Kennedy began unwinding his positions saying, “You know it’s time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over.”"

My tiny ($2K) speculation to buy into SpaceX indirectly a couple of months ago (via investing in XOVR) didn't seem to benefit from the Day 1 intraday mania in SpaceX that I had expected. Given that XOVR has an exposure equivalent to about 24% of its overall investments. I will wait and see how the SpaceX stock price tracks next week, and if the price of XOVR starts to reflect the movement in SpaceX more in line with my expectations (eg. the 6.4% EOD change in SpaceX stock price *should* have resulted in XOVR ending the day up by about 1.6%, rather than 0.7%.

In any event, my speculation on XOVR has still done quite well since my purchase of 100 shares at USD$17.01 on 13 April - closing at USD$19.67 on Friday. The other two largest positions XOVR holds are NVidia and Alphabet, so this is sort of an AI and SpaceX play overall.


Unfortunately the other speculative play I made was to buy Palantir, expecting it to do well from the US Iran war and AI exposure -- but it got an early start on the current AI 'correction' regarding excessive enthusiasm for AI stocks after initial speculative about the Minab Tomahawk strike blamed Palantir's involvement in Project Maven (later turned out that the lack of human oversight/verification in the 'kill-chain' and outdated military database regarding the use of the school building) were more at fault). PLTR has performed well over the past 5 years, so hopefully the stock price will recover over time.


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Monday, 1 June 2026

Net Worth MAY 2026

Chart updated to end of MAY in sidebar.

My stocks/cash increased $2,613 (+0.53%) to $493,946. This portfolio is actually about 73% cash currently, as I include my mortgage offset account balance in this figure, and I recently sold off my small superhero trading account holdings and my Microequities Asset Managment Value Fund to simplify my accounts and also realize some capital gains under the current CGT rules (50% discount for long term CG, and application of marginal tax rate), as I might have a low enough taxable income this FY to get some CGT calculated using less than 30% tax rate. I will have a slightly higher taxable income next FY (as I expect to be working FT all FY), but will still make use of the 50% CG discount to sell off some US stock holdings (if the AUD drops vs the USD), and my bullion holdings in the Perth Mint depository account.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc.) increased by +$55,636 (+2.41%) to $2,364,379. No contributions made this month. I started my new job and have some SGL contributions due, but they are still getting the SMSF account details setup properly.

The real estate holdings were fairly constant. The estimated value of our home remained unchanged at $1,295,556 (my half) for yet another month, While my 'other real estate' (investment apartment and holiday home) increased by +$1,592 (+0.07%) to $2,195,831.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) decreased by -$1,103 (-1.29%) to $84,344. I have stopped my $200/mo bullion savings plan, as I want to sell and pay CGT under the current regime. I might restart the monthly savings plan in future, as the new CGT rules (with cost base CPI adjustment) would mean no CGT on any price rise that only matches inflation (and generally gold is used as a hedge against inflation, rather than a speculative investment).

Overall, NW increased by +$58,738 (+1.09%) to $5,444,678 during May. NW needs to increase by about 0.2% per month on average to keep pace with inflation (I.e. maintain real value), so the increase during May was about +0.9% in real value.

Towards the end of the month we had to spend around $4,600 to have our sewer pipe unblocked and a section of pipe replaced (it had been damaged by the roots of a large liquid amber tree that we removed about ten years ago, and we knew we would eventually have to get the damaged pipe replaced), so this will impact my NW figure at the end of June. I will receive my SMSF minimum annual pension payment in June, but as that will effectively just be a transfer of funds from my SMSF account into my mortgage offset account it will not impact my overall NW.

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Saturday, 9 May 2026

Where are you in the rat race? Australian household Net Worth by Age

I found an interesting estimation of Australian household median and average net worth (total assets - total liabilities) broken down by age group on a webpage by wealthvieu. It made the estimates using the ABS survey of Income and Housing for 2019-20, and then adjusting for current (2025-26) property valuations. It also have estimated household net worth for the 25th, 50th (median), 75th, 90th and 99th percentile of the overall Australian adult population. I then calculated the ratio of these percentiles relative to the median and applied it to the median for each age group, so I could plot a rough estimate of the Household NW percentile values plotted against age.

I added DW's super balance and share of our home valuation to my NW figure to get an estimate of our household net worth for comparison. It looks like we would fall somewhere around the 97th-98th percentile for our age group.

As expected, household net worth starts off close to zero at age 20, then rises during working life until it peaks just before retirement, and is then 'decumulated' during retirement. But as studies have shown, most retirees do not 'die with zero' but instead leave an estate (either by intent, or by underspending during retirement).

It is interesting to see how the NW gap narrows as you proceed from the 25th, to 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles -- but then the 99th percentile is considerably further above the 90th percentile than you would expect if the progression up to the 90th percentile had continued to follow the same trend. It seems that the top 1%-5% of the population is considerably more skilled than most at wealth accumulation. I suppose this is true of most areas of human endeavor -- a small percentage of participants in any activity are exceptional good at it, and stand 'head and shoulders' above even the top 10%.

It is also interesting (to me) that the peak of the 99th percentile is 'only' a realistically achievable $10MM or so. Some of those in the 'top 1%' achieve truly stratospheric net worth of $100MM, $1B etc. Usually based on the creation of one insanely successful (and lucrative) business venture...


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Saturday, 2 May 2026

Net Worth APR 2026

Chart updated to end of APR in sidebar.

The US stock market has continued to appreciate despite the ongoing Iran war (possibly due purely to an AI bubble reminiscent of the dot.com bubble of 2000), while the Australian and other international markets continue to show weakness. Probably indicative of an impending global recession and inflationary pressures due to oil price likely to remain above $100/barrel for the rest of the year.

My stocks/cash increased $24,669 (+5.26%) to $493,946. This was largely due to a cash gift I received in April that I added to my mortgage offset account.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc.) increased by +$67,801 (+3.03%) to $2,308,743. This didn't quite fully reverse the substantial drop experienced in March. No contributions made this month. Having started my new job this week, some SGL contributions will recommence soon.

The real estate holdings were a mixed bag. The estimated value of our home remained unchanged at $1,295,556 (my half) for yet another month, While my 'other real estate' (investment apartment and holiday home) increased by +$6,632 (+0.30%) to $2,194,239.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) decreased by -$4,588 (-5.10%) to $85,447. I am currently still adding $200 worth of gold to my Perth Mint online depository account each month. In theory a price dip is good while using DCA to accumulate an asset over time. Every cloud has a silver (or gold) lining I suppose.

Overall, NW increased by +$94,514 (+1.79%) to $5,385,940 during April. NW needs to increase by about 0.2% per month on average to keep pace with inflation (I.e. maintain real value), so the increase during April was about +1.6% in real value. Excluding the gift I received, the April 'bounce back' recouped about half of the decrease experienced in March.

The acute impact of the Iran war seems to have mitigated, but I expect the impact on the global economic growth and inflation will be negative during the remainder of 2026.

We just had to spend around $5,000 to have one of our home's property fences replaced, so this will impact my NW figure at the end of May. I will receive my SMSF pension payment in June, but as that will effectively just be a transfer of funds from my SMSF account into my mortgage offset account it will not impact my overall NW.

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