Sunday, 15 December 2024

Decided to max out my NCC cap space this FY

The two main contribution types that can be made into superannuation are concessional contributions (CC) and non-concessional contributions (NCC). Concessional contributions are those that have the 15% contribution tax applied to a 'before tax' amount of income contributed into superannuation -- eg. Superannuation Guarantee (SG) paid by the employer, any salary sacrifice amount, and any amount of personal contribution where a tax deduction is claimed. The annual cap on CC is currently $30K, and there are various employment. tax residency and age requirements that aren't relevant to most working Australians. Non-concessional contributions are the 'after tax' amounts one can also contribute into superannuation ie. you take some money that you already paid income tax on, and make a contribution into superannuation without claiming any tax deduction. There is an annual cap on NCC of four times the CC cap (ie. currently $120K), and there are some 'carry forward' rules that allow unused CC cap space to be 'carried forward' for up to 5 years, subject to some other requirements (eg. TSB under $500K, age limit, employment status etc.). There is also a 'bring forwards' rule that allows you to make an immediate contribution of up to three years of NCC, ie. 'bringing forward' up to 2 future years of NCC, so you can make an NCC of up to $360K in one year, and then have $0 'cap space' for the next two years. However, this 'bring forward' rule only applies up to the TSB cap (currently $1.9M). If you already have >=TSB then your NCC cap is $0, and you can't use the 'bring forward' rule. And if you are close to the TSB cap, then you may only be able to  make a NCC of $120K, or perhaps 'bring forward' one additional years of NCC, ie. make a $240K NCC. According to the ATO:

  • You are only eligible to bring-forward the next 2 years of contributions if you are under 75 years (67 years for 2021–22, 65 years for 2020–21 and prior years) on 1 July of the first financial year in which your total super balance on 30 June of the previous financial year was less than $1.66 million from 1 July 2024 ($1.48 million from 1 July 2021, and $1.68 million from 1 July 2023).
  • If your TSB on 30 June of the previous financial year was $1.66 million or above but less than $1.78 million – you can contribute 2 times the annual cap over 2 years (that is, $240,000).
  • If your TSB on 30 June of the previous financial year was $1.78 million or above – you can't bring forward any amount, but you can make a current year contribution of up to $120,000.

Our SMSF is currently preparing the fund's tax return for FY24, but from my monthly estimate of my retirement savings balance, I had around $1.79M as at 30 June (the actual figure in previous FY has varied from my estimate by +/- $10K-$20K) and my TSB is current around $1.96M. So this will be the last year I can make any NCC into super - either $120K or $240K, depending on my TSB as at 30 June 2024. I have just over $200K sitting in my investment mortgage offset account. so I have setup an automatic $20K/mo deposit into my QSuper account for the next 6 months (to use up my $120K NCC cap space for this FY). Once out SMSF tax return is finalised and lodged (around April next year) I will be able to get the official TSB for 30 June 2024 from the ATO mygov website, and can make another $120K 'bring forward' NCC contribution if my TSB was <$1.78M.

It is a bit hard to do optimal tax planning given the timing of when SMSF tax return figures become available (about 9 months after the EOFY) -- if I had known last June that I was going to be just over the $1.78M TSB limit to impact my NCC 'bring forward' by $120K, I might have paid myself the maximum 10% TRIS pension rather than the minimum 4%. The extra $18K TRIS pension payment *might* have just brought my TSB down to the level permitting an extra $120K NCC to be paid into super this FY.

Ah well, you do the best planning possible with the data available at the time...

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Tuesday, 3 December 2024

How many 'go-go' years will you have in retirement?

One of the factors to be considered when planning for how long your retirement savings might need to last, is to consider both life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. The World Health organisation has published some data on Life expectancy and Healthy life expectancy by country. For retirement planning purposes it is also important to look at these figures at age 60, not 'at birth'. The relevant figures for males in various developed countries are listed below:

Male Healthy Life Expectancy at age 60: (2019 data)
        yrs => age:
Australia         18.2 78.2
New Zealand 17.9 77.9
Japan 18.8 78.8
UK         17.6 77.6
Germany      17.0 77.0
France         18.5 78.5
USA         15.6 75.6
Canada 18.2 78.2

Male Life Expectancy at age 60: (2019 data)
    yrs => age:
Australia      24.4 84.4
New Zealand 23.8 83.8
Japan 23.9 83.9
UK         23.0 83.0
Germany 21.9 81.9
France 23.3 83.3
USA         21.8 81.8
Canada 23.8 83.8

So for the average Australian male aged 60 who intends to retire at 65, it would be reasonable to expect (on average) to have 13.2 years (to age 78.2) of healthy, or 'go-go' years where spending needs might be somewhat higher to fund travel, hobbies etc. Then a slightly lower spending rate during to slow-go and no-go years to age 84.4 (ie. another 6.2 years).

Of course past lifestyle, genetics, and behaviour during retirement and luck (eg. terminal illness) could make actual healthy and total lifespan vary considerably from 'the average'. So it is really just a reasonable 'guestimate'. I find it quite amusing that financial planners often plug in national life expectancy (sometimes with an extra 5 years added on 'just in case') when doing Monte Carlo simulations to provide a 'probability of success' figure for a specific retirement starting balance, asset allocation, and estimated average return and std dev. The 'simulation' of 1,000 'runs' will then spit out a figure like '96%' probability of success, meaning that in 4% of the simulations the retirement funds would be exhausted before the 'end date'. But if one also takes into account the uncertainty in the 'end date' (ie longevity risk) such probability figures are really have massive 'error bars'. The plots of the simulations often show the average final balance and the range (and perhaps top and bottom quartiles), but generally do not show the impact the variability in life expectancy will have on the range of 'projected' outcomes.

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Monday, 2 December 2024

Net Worth - NOV 2024

Chart updated to end of NOV in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $7,373 (+2.44%) to $308,938 due to a strong equities market during the past month.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) increased by $74,920 (3.97%) to $1,963,144.

Est. valuation of our home (my half) decreased slightly by -$1,296 (-0.11%) to $1,193,207. However he 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) increased by $35,067 (+1.62%) to $2,195,470.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) decreased by -$1,616 (-3.14%) to $49,803 due to a reversal in the  gold and silver upwards trend during November..

Overall, NW increased strongly by +$114,448 (+2.49%) to $4,718,571 during November, to hit a new personal record high. Since 1 Jan my NW has risen $555K, which seems rather unbelievable.

I added  a new widget to the top of the blog template - the 'Buffet Indicator' for the Australian Stock Market Total Capitalization divided by the Australian GDP.  The US version suggests that the US stock market might be overpriced (so there is increased probability of a correctio or extended period of low price growth) in coming years. The Australian market in comparison seems more reasonably priced (unlike the situation in 2007), but often drops in 'sympathy' with any large fall in the US market regardless.

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Friday, 1 November 2024

Net Worth - OCT 2024

Chart updated to end of OCT in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $8,402 (+2.87%) to $301,565 (mostly due to cash savings as the market was fairly flat over the full month). This was partly due to my tenants paying two month's of rent during October. I had requested a modest annual rent increase (from $850/wk to $888/wk, or 4.47%, which was quite conservative as the rent had not been increased last year, and inflation during the past 2 years was around 10%. However, the tenants gave notice that they would be leaving in late November (as they couldn't afford a rent increase). I decided to offer keeping the current rent for another year if they signed a new 12-month lease. We'll see what they decide. If they move out the unit might be vacant for serveral weeks, and the managing agent also charges a week's rent to arrange a new tenant. So forgoing a rent rise for 12 months might be a better option than finding new tenants. I'm a bit loath to skip a rent increase for 2 years in a row, however, as if the current tenants then remain for several years it is difficult to ever 'catch up' the rent increase. Usually you can only revert to 'market rates' when a new tenant moves in.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) decreased by -$1,195 (-0.06%) to $1,888,224.

Est. valuation of our home (my half) decreased by -$16,842 (-1.39%) to $1,194,503. The 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) also decreased by -$1,248 (-0.06%) to $2,160,403. The estimated value of my investment apartment dropped again, more than the slight increase in the estimated valuation for my 'lake house'.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) increased by $4,554 (+9.72%) to $51,419 due to continuing rise in gold and silver prices..

Overall, NW decreased slightly by -$6,329 (-0.14%) to $4,604,123 during October.

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Tuesday, 1 October 2024

Overall LVR since buying my 'off-the-plan' $1MM apartment five years ago

Looking at the breakdown of my overall NW chart in networthshare, the amount of debt ($1MM) I took on relative to my NW ($2.35MM) at the time was quite adventurous. The LVR was 42.5%, which was quite high (similar to the gearing levels I had used for my margin loan share portfolio prior to the GFC). But fortunately you can't get a 'margin call' on a property mortgage (as long as you keep making the required monthly payments). In the five years since making that purchase decision the unit construction was completed, the loan settled (so the loan was established and repayments commenced), and mortgage interest rates have climbed considerably. But at least the apartment valuation is more than I initially paid, and while I get a hefty tax deduction via negative gearing (mostly due to the depreciation schedule) the actual cashflow cost 'out-of-pocket' is relatively modest (at least for another couple of years while the loan remains in 'interest only' mode).

The unit was initially rented out for $850/wk (about $50/wk more than similar units due to my allowing the tenants to have a pet dog), and the rent wasn't increased last year when the first tenants moved out and I decided to not increase the rent in order to get new tenants as quickly as possible (they actually moved in a couple of days after the previous tenants vacated). The managing agent did the annual rent review last month, and had initially suggested that I only increase the rent by $20/wk. I pointed out that the comparison rents they had based this on were for apartments on the lower levels (with no city or harbour views), and those units probably didn't allow pets. So I requested the rent be increased by $38/wk (to a nice 'auspicious' rate of $888/wk - which was slightly ruined by the agent only citing the equivalent monthly figure on the rent notice given to the tenants). This was still a rather modest overall increase of only 4.5% over two years considering that Sydney rents have generally risen by over 6% in just the past 12 months.

Due to the outstanding loan balance saying at roughly $1MM during the past five years, while my NW has increased to $4.6MM over that period, the overall LVR for my entire 'portfolio' has now decreased to a much more conservative 21.7%.

Next year I might use some of the cash sitting in my my mortgage offset account to have a self-contained 'granny flat' extension added to my 'lake house'. Initially we would be able to use the extra space when we visit during the holidays, as my parents are planning to move into the lake house next year (so it will be quite crowded if we all visit at the same time). Eventually we could continue to use the 'granny flat' extension for weekend visits if I decide to rent out the main house when my parents eventually move to Sydney to be closer to health services. Someone with a horse was interested in renting the property last year, and it could probably rent for around $600/wk - which would cover the property expenses (rates, insurance, maintenance etc.). and would repay the cost of the granny flat extension in only a few years. I could then continue to use the rental income as another retirement income stream if we end up only visiting the lake house (granny flat) occasionally after I retire.



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Net Worth - SEP 2024

Chart updated to end of SEP in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $1,593 (+0.55%) to $293,163

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) increased by $31,493 (+1.70%) to $1,889,419.

Est. valuation of our home (my half) increased by $7,126 (+0.59%) to $1,211,345. The 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) also increased by $1,429 (+0.07%) to $2,161,645. The estimated value of my investment apartment actually dropped, but this was offset by an increase in the estimated valuation for my 'lake house'.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) increased by $1,587 (+3.51%) to $46,865 due to a spike in gold and silver prices..

Overall, NW increased by $43,228 (+0.95%) to $4,610,452 during September.

The Perth Mint Online Depository website has a new Portfolio History view that I hadn't noticed before (it might be a new feature) that looks quite nice. But the overall upwards trend is mostly due to my regular savings plan (which I resumed a few months ago, after pausing for a while. The plot of monthly bullion prices gives a better indication of how gold and silver prices have done quite well since I opened the account (although Platinum has been rather disappointing -- starting out relatively cheap compared to its historic price relative to gold, and not improving at all. I have no idea why platinum is doing so poorly -- I thought it had a better use-case compared to gold, but that might mean it is simply priced as an expensive commodity for industrial use, so doesn't benefit from the same speculative pressures as gold and silver? I might increase my monthly savings plan by $100/mo and resume making monthly Platinum purchases, but it is less convenient to buy Platinum than gold or silver, as you can only setup an automatic purchase schedule for gold and silver, but platinum purchase orders have to be entered manually during trading hours.



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Monday, 2 September 2024

Net Worth - AUG 2024

Chart updated to end of AUG in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $4,751 (+1.66%) to $291,570.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) increased by $4,445 (+0.24%) to $1,857,921.

Est. valuation of our home (my half) increased by $22,672 (+1.92%) to $1,204,219. The 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) also increased by $39,832 (+1.88%) to $2,160,222. The estimated valuations bounce around quite a bit from month-to-month depending on sales in the relevant suburbs, so I suspect the precision of these monthly figures is +/- 2%, and the accuracy perhaps +/-10% or more. But at least using a consistent methodology should provide a reasonable trend indication and magnitude of changes in valuation from year-to-year.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) decreased by $365 (-0.80%) to $45,278.

Overall, NW increased by $71,335 (+1.59%) to $4,567,224 during August. Tracking NW monthly changes often feels a bit like playing snakes & ladders or Monopoly. A lot of fun during the 'up' months, but not so much fun during rough patches.

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Saturday, 17 August 2024

Why delay retirement?

The other part of Moomin's question about my budget review post was why I don't retire now, since I can afford to?

There are basically two main reasons:

1. I don't mind working - the job is moderately interesting, moderately easy, and moderately well paid. Of course there are aspects of the job I find tedious, difficult or annoying (on occasion), but nothing to the extent that makes mee feel like sending in an "I quit!" email to my boss. And I suspect I would find retirement a bit boring. Once you have enough saved up to retire whenever the urge takes you, continuing to work can seem less onerous (paradoxically, having FU money reduces the urge to say FU -- a lot of office politics and incompetent co-workers become rather amusing when you can take it or leave it).

2. There are financial benefits to working (no surprise there!). This can be considered in two parts - the impact on my financial situation when I do retire (and during retirement thereafter), and the impact on my non-retirement investments (my 'estate' or 'net worth'). This impact can be larger than some might intuit, so I did a quick spreadsheet model to illustrate an example (of the retirement income part).

Scenario: Currently aged 65 with a superannuation balance of $1.2MM. Can either retire in 12 months (just before turn 66), or keep working for a few more years.

Assumptions:

All figures in current $ (ie. real (inflation adjusted) returns, salary increased with cpi, etc.

Current salary is $120Kpa and will remain constant (cpi increases only) until retire

SGL rate is 12% of salary, and is taxed at 15% going in to super

At age 65 can rollover the super accumulation balance into 'pension phase' which will have a 0% tax rate on earnings or capital gains within super, and the pension payments are not taxable income. (This might be easier to do with an SMSF than if you are in a retail superannuation fund).

The pension payments received while still working are the min required withdrawal rate, and are fully recontributed into super as an undeducted contribution (ie. the TSB remains below the TBC).

The super investments have an average real rate of return of 8% (you can comment about how totally unrealistic this assumption is!)

From retirement onwards the annual tax-free pension withdrawn from super is set for each retirement scenarui ti be a constant amount that will completely exhaust the super balance at life expectancy (age 87).

Modelling results:

As shown below, if retire at the end of year age 65 the super could provide theoretically provide an annual income each year of $128Kpa during 22 years in retirement (ignoring variability of returns, sequencing risk, lifespan uncertainty/longevity risk, legislative risk/changes to tax-free pension rules etc.)

Delaying retirement for one additional year would mean an extra year of SGL contributions, and the pension paid out during that year would have been recontributed as an NCC. So the super balance would have benefitted from an extra year of contributions and one less year of withdrawals, and the money that would have been withdrawn and spent can instead remain invested in super and enjoy 22 years of tax free compound growth. This increases the annual retirement income by 10.9% while reducing the years spent in retirement by only 4.5%.

Every extra year of working and delaying retirement reduces the number of years that will be spent in retirement, but boost the retirement income available each year during retirement. On the graph this appears to be a very simple trade-off between years of retirement and retirement income during retirement, but the decrease in years in retirement is linear, while the increase in retirement income is an exponential curve.

So, delaying retirement to age 71 would result in a 27% decrease in years of retirement, but a 90% increase in annual income while retired.

The big questions (with unknown answers) are:

* how many of those retirement years will be 'go-go' (healthy and active), 'slow-go' (healthy but less active), and 'no-go' (inactive and/or with health issues)? The 'lost' retirement years due to delaying retirement are all some of the 'go-go' years, so if you want to spend the first few years of retirement doing international travel and heliskiing NZ and Japan or trekking up to Machu Pichu, delaying retirement might not be such a good idea. Then again, you might not have the retirement income to fund the 'go-go' years if you retire too soon.

* how much do you need/want in retirement? There isn't much point working to have a bigger retirement income if you don't need/want the extra retirement income (but you may also be happy to use any 'surplus' retirement income to add to your estate/NW during retirement -- depends on your goals in retirement.

* longevity - planning for a life expectancy of 87 is just a wild guess. If you die at age 73 then working until age 71 might seem like a poor choice to those who survive you (but you won't be around to care). Then again, you might live to age 104 like my great-grand-Aunt, and enjoy 'go-go' retirement until age 100 or so. In which case retiring at 65 and expecting to only need retirement income to last until age 87, and to only have ten years or so of 'go-go' years, might result in relying on the Age Pension or selling other non-retirement assets during those 'extra' years. You probably won't complain about still being around in your 90s, but a decision to retire at age 65 might look sub-optimal in retrospect.


There are also some ancillary benefits of retiring a few years later and with a higher super balance - purchasing a lifetime annuity provides more feasible to secure a larger fraction of the desired retirement income, reducing longevity risk quite significantly for every extra year of work.

Finally, the modelling doesn't include the impact of working a few more years on accumulation and growth of non-retirement assets. For example, while working a significant fraction of my salary can continue to flow into non-retirement savings such as adding to my Investment Bond and to my investment property offset account (so there may be no net mortgage balance by the time I retire). Whether or not this is any incentive to work a few more years depends on what your financial goals are.

Some scenarios:




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Friday, 16 August 2024

Needs vs Wants

Moom's comment re my budget overview made my do a quick recalc and double check of my figures vs moomin's budget breakdown for last FY

My figures seem pretty much correct, although I count my investment property expenses and loan interest as part of 'savings' as it is basically the cost of holding the investment property, so is effectively spending current income to purchase a future CG benefit (which will get taxed at 50% of tax rate that would apply to income).


My tax deductible investment expenses are 31% of gross income (vs. 5% for Moomin) which (in conjunction with lower gross income and a progressive tax scale) accounts for my tax expenditure coming in at 18% of gross income vs 26% for Moomin.

Spending on 'needs' (housing, food, healthcare etc) is roughly comparable - except that my employer pays for our life insurance and private healthcare, and we have paid off our home mortgage, and I spend a lot less on transport as I work from home FT these days.

The biggest difference seems to be in the spending on 'wants' (3% vs 23%) which is mostly due to either big ticket items that I don't have  any use for (private school fees and childcare) or don't want (travel, mail order and restaurant meals). As with all 'wants' this comes down to perceived utility - I did a lot of international travel in my teens and twenties (as my dad was an international airline pilot) so don't feel the urge to do expensive international trips these days. DW and DS1 did go on a trip to China earlier this year, and DS1 did trips to the US and Japan, but I've already been around the world multiple times so no longer have any 'wunder lust' left (I might use my QFF points for a return trip to NZ next year to walk the Routeburn track with DS1 -- but a hiking trip using frequent flyer points won't blow out my 'travel' budget either).

And DW and I had decided a decade ago that selective HS was likely to be as good for DS1 and DS2 as a private HS education would have been. Apparently the ACT doesn't have any academically selective high schools (probably not in keeping with the more socialist overall electorate in a territory with an outsized public service and government sector compared to other regions of Australia).so in the ACT this expense may fall into the 'needs' category rather than 'wants' given the general standard of non-selective public high schools these days?

Spending on knick-knacks (mail order) and dining out are probably the only two obvious categories where I choose to spend disposable income on investments rather than lifestyle. As I have coelliac disease and our kids both have lots of food allergies, eating out was always more of a nuisance than an enjoyable experience anyhow. DW does spend quite a bit on eating out with her friends (I think), but as we keep our finances mostly separate, this doesn't appear in my budget. And I already have a garage full of unused hobby stuff (HO trains, scuba and ski gear, plastic models in original 1980s boxes etc) and a farm shed full of unused boat, hovercraft, kayak, windsurfer etc. etc. so I hardly need to buy any more 'stuff' ;)

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Thursday, 15 August 2024

Budget overview

I decided to do a quick review of my overall budget, to see if anything needs adjusting.

My overall expenditure breakdown is as shown below:


About 25.6% of total income goes directly into savings and investments via automatic monthly savings transfers and super contributions.

Another 37.4% of my total income is used to cover the investment property holding costs (mortgage interest payments, rates, insurance etc.)

The overall income tax is lowered by the investment property being negatively geared - with the property expenses and depreciation exceeding the rental income.

Around 21.4% of total expenditure is on "needs" - consisting of 9.9% going towards food, 8.7% towards housing and 2.8% towards healthcare. The housing costs are the rates, insurance, electricity and water and any repairs etc. for our home and the lake house. It is fairly low as we don't have a mortgage on our home or the lake house. The healthcare costs are my gym membership and any fitness equipment purchases, medicines, and medical expenses not reimbursed by Medicare. I haven't included the cost of our private health cover as the premiums are paid by my employer.

Spending on "wants" is only 4% of the total budget, with 1.6% being 'transport' (the running costs (insurance, registration, servicing and petrol) for my Jaguar) and 2.4% being spent on 'entertainment' (internet and mobile phone plans, Amazon Prime, gifts, eating takeaway etc.).

Everything is quite 'steady state' at the moment, so I expect this to remain pretty much the same expenditure pattern as long as I continue working full-time (another 5-10 years or so). When I turn 65 I will move my super into 'pension phase' and the tax-free pension payments will go into the investment property mortgage offset account, so I should have enough there to clear the investment property mortgage when I retire (if things go according to plan).

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Wednesday, 7 August 2024

US election 2024

What can I say? I'm fairly conservative but some things just seem way too strange to ignore...


ps. I put a $5 bet on Nikki Hailey before Trump won the Republican party nomination (which I guess is now a write-off, unless something very unlikely happens in the next 3 months), so I've now put $5 on Harris as plan B. If I lose that $10 bet I suspect there will be more things to worry about during the next four years. Glad I live on the other side of the world.

pps. Apparently Vance isn't dumb (no comment re Trump) but he is certainly a bit weird.

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Sunday, 4 August 2024

Bike Update

Apparently you get what you pay for. LOL ;)

The cheap $129 Repco Blade 26 66cm Men's Mountain Bike I bought online from BigW turned out to be the colour I preferred (black with green highlights), which was a bit lucky as there are blue and green varieties sold by BigW and when you order online for 'click and collect' pickup it is a random selection (although you could swap for the other colour if there was floor stock available in store). I noticed that there was a slight indent/damage/tear in the cardboard box the bike comes in, but it didn't look too bad so I decided to take the one that was ready for collection -- although I had seen there were two other green ones also available in boxes in the floor display, so I should have asked to swap for an undamaged box. D'Oh!

I unpacked and assembled the bike yesterday. Only needed to insert and fasten the handle bars and seat, and adjust the bell and reflectors on the handle bars. Then screw on the two bike pedals. And finally insert the front tire (which came deflated to make it easier to squish to get it past the brake calipers) and tighten the nuts and then pump up the front tire (the rear tire was already pumped up, but probably needs the pressure checked before I ride the bike). I did manage to get the front tire put on incorrectly, despite double checking which was the correct 'direction of rotation'. Putting the front wheel on with the bike upside down managed to get me confused somehow, so when both wheels were on and I turned the bike upright I noticed that the front and back wheels had the 'direction of rotation' on the tires pointing in opposite directions!.Tip: when you put on the front tire, just check the direction arrow is pointing the same way as it is on the reat tire that comes pre-assembled.

Unfortunately although the assembly process was an easy 20 minute job (only needing the allen key/Phillips head screwdriver that came with the bike, and one small shifting spnner) the final step of pumping up the front tire proved to be a show-stopper. It just wouldn't pump up, and I could hear air escaping from the part of the wheel opposite the valve. After browsing google and youtube trying to work out if the bike was tubeless or had an inner tube (turns out it has an inner tube), I then had to remove the front wheel again, use a butter knife to carefully lever off the tire (I didn't have a bike tire lever handy), and listen to find where the air was escaping from the inner tube when I pumped it up. I found a small (<1cm) cut in the inner tube, possibly caused when the box was damaged (?) or maybe it just came like that from the factory? Anyhow, before driving back to the store I used the online customer service to lodge a complaint and request a suitable replacement inner tube set be delivered free of charge to my home. Unfortunately there was only the 'bot' customer service available on the weekend, so I'll have to wait until Monday to see if someone calls me, or ring up to check if they will be sending me a replacement part. I don't want to spend another hour driving to the store and back just to collect an inner tube set.

If I do have to drive to the store to collect the replacement tube(s) I will first check what size my wife's bike needs (she got a free bike from a friend that has flat tyres), and buy a suitable inner tube set for her bike while I am there.

Next weekend I'll be walking the City2Surf on Sunday, so I probably won't take the new bike out for its first ride until the following weekend, even if the replacement inner tube gets delivery during the coming week.

ps. I also have an old/new bike I bought from Aldi about five years ago and never used (had trouble adjusting the brake calipers correctly) and the tires had gone flat while it was sitting outside for years. Now that I've played around with removing the tire and replacing an inner tube, I might also remove those tires and check what replacement tubes are needed, and then clean up and fix that bike for DS2 to use. Not sure if the chain and gears on that bike are still OK though. I did a free 'bike maintenance' course run by our local council a few years ago, but have never really been much for playing around with car or bike mechanics (despite spending a decade as an experimental scientist for a mining equipment research company -- so I spent a lot of time fiddling around with minerals processing lab equipment, slurry pumps, and experimental chemical engineering setups). I don't enjoy fiddling around with bikes, but as a local bike shop would charge over $100 for a basic service, I'm motivated to do a bit of DIY. Probably a good idea to have a spare inner tube and know how to replace a punctured tube anyhow ;)

**** update ****

I phoned customer service on Monday to check if they were going to send a replacement inner tube, and after being on hold for five minutes the rep a) couldn't find the bot generated service ticket generated on Sunday (apparently the automated system doesn't *normally* generate support tickets?), then b) put me on hold to check with her manager - then came back and said I would have to pack up and return the entire bike and get a replacement. After double checking that I really couldn't just get a replacement inner tube, I gave up and decided to disassemble the bike, pack it all backinto the carton (with a few bits in a paper bag, as it wouldn't all fit back into the original box after the packing and cable ties had been removed during unpacking). I then spent an hour driving back to BigW to return the bike, explain the situation again to customer service, and then be given the choice of either just getting the inner tube replaced (!) or exchange the whole bike. Having brought the entire bike back to the shop (and not entirely sure some parts hadn't moved around in the box and scratched the paintwork while driving back to the store) I decided to just get a whole new bike. I assembled the replacement bike today and it all seems OK this time, so tomorrow I'll give it a short test drive and check everything works and is still tight after a short trip.

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Thursday, 1 August 2024

Net Worth - JUL 2024

Chart updated to end of July in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $24,483 (+9.33%) to $286,819.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) increased by $62,340 (+3.48%) to $1,853,481. I am rapidly approaching the current $1.9M 'transfer balance cap' which sets the maximum amount I will be able to transfer into 'pension phase' when I turn 65. I have already 'used up' $10K of my cap when I bought my deferred lifetime annuity product (that will start paying out a pension income stream if/when I turn 99). So my remaining 'cap space' is somewhere around $1.89M (the exact figure is calculated by the ATO, as only the unused cap space gets increased in line with the transfer balance cap setting. Any superannuation above the TBC will remain in accumulation phase. The money in 'pension phase' will have 0% tax rate applied to earnings and capital gains, but is also subject to the age-based minimum annual withdrawal (pension payment) rates (eg. 5%pa for age 65-74). The money left in 'accumulation phase' will continue to have 15% tax rate applied to earnings and 10% tax rate on long term capital gains. It is still worth accumulating money into super beyond the TBC, as even in retirement my personal marginal income tax rate is likely to be more than 15%. It won't be worth accumulating more than the $3M threshold beyond which the extra 15% tax would apply within superannuation (but I am unlikely to surpass that threshold).

Est. valuation of our home (my half) increased by $8,551 (+0.73%) to $1,181,547. But the 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) decreased by -$28,597 (-1.33%) to $2,120,390. Both properties saw a decline in estimated value (based on local average sales prices).

The outstanding balance of the investment property mortgage decreased slightly to $999,991 due to some minor adjustment/correction in interest charged by the bank. The loan is still in the 'interest only' period of the mortgage, with another ~3.75 years remaining of the 'interest only' period. I'm continuing to try to build up as much cash in the 'offset account' as possible, so when the loan transitions to P&I the increase in monthly payments will be somewhat mitigated. I think the P&I monthly repayment figure will be based on the remaining 25 year term and $1M notional loan amount, so the monthly repayments won't be reduced, but having a large balance in the offset account would reduce the actual amount of interest each month -- so the repayments would pay off the loan a lot sooner. When the loan transitions to the higher monthly P&I repayment schedule I will already be receiving the 5% minimum 'pension' payment from my SMSF pension phase account, so I should have plenty of cash flow to cover the repayments. When I retire and no longer benefit from the tax deduction provided by negative gearing I might either pay off the outstanding mortgage, or else sell the property (and have a CGT liability).

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) increased by $2,742 (6.39%) to $45,643.

The new 16% withholding tax rate specified by the ATO per my variation request has been applied by the payroll department, so I will accumulate the extra monthly cashflow into my offset account during the year (and not get much, or any, refund when I lodge my tax return next year).

Overall, NW increased by $69,521 (+1.57%) to $4,495,889 during July. A pretty great start to the new financial year. Combined with the unexpected increase in employer-funded life and TPD insurance cover (theoretically worth up to $295K to DW in the event of my unexpected demise), it was a very positive month financially speaking.

ps. I thought I had ordered a very cheap electric bicycle online (only $290 for a Bopzin Ridstar Q20 1500W) last week, but then when I double checked on the shipping info page after placing the order to see what the delivery timeframe was, I noticed that the dealer is US-based and only ships within the continental US (D'Oh!). So I expect my order will eventually be cancelled and the paypal charge reversed off. As the cheapest electric bikes cost A$1K or more (and the max power allowed in NSW is 500W for an eBike) I have instead bought a very cheap Repco Blade 25 Mountain Bike from BigW. I don't expect too much for $129, but it was cheaper to buy a new bike than pay a local bike shop to replace the tires and my old bike and do a clean and service. And even a $129 bike should be good enough to get some exercise riding on the trails in our nearby national park. There is a nice 20km (each way) ride with some spectacular views:


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Wednesday, 31 July 2024

Changes to my Employer's Superannuation Fund insurance benefits

I have most of my retirement savings invested in our SMSF, as the annual $1K admin fee is quite modest when shared across the three member accounts, and works out to be only about 0.05% of the total SMSF balance pa. And we are mostly invested in a couple of Vanguard low fee funds, so the overall investment management fees average around 0.3%pa. Bur we don't have any life or TPD insurance via our SMSF. 

On the other hand, my employer's default superannuation offering provides a refund of a large portion of the standard retail admin fees (so is quite a low cost offering) and also rebates the fees charged for the default amount of life and total and permanent disability insurance, which is why I retained this superannuation account to receive the SGL contributions when I 'rolled over' the bulk of my retirement savings into our SMSF.

Being effectively 'free' life and TPD insurance I wasn't too concerned about the amount of cover provided, especially as with having no home mortgage and with DS2 about to complete high school I can afford to 'self insure' to all intents and purposes. But the 'free' life insurance was still a nice perk from my employer.

Previously the insurance offering cost the company a fixed amount (based on salary) per insured member, and the cover provided was a fixed number of 'units' of insurance. The amount of cover provided per 'unit' decreased with age -- so younger members had a lot more insurance cover than older members, for the same cost per employee. Basically you received 15% of salary x number of years until age 65 (so I would have no insurance cover from age 65 onwards).

The insurance offering was recently revamped, with rates lowered overall, and also a major change in how the amount of cover was calculated. The new offering provides a fixed multiple (3x) of annual salary as the amount of life insurance and TPD insurance provided, and the employer is charged a different amount per $1,000 of cover, depending on the age of the insured life.

In my case, at age 62, my previous amount of life and TPD insurance cover was only $40,608 and would have dropped to $0 by age 65. The new insurance cover will be $336,072 and remain a constant 3x salary until I retire (perhaps at age 70). The cost (to my employer) of the new insurance is $1,770 pa, compared to roughly $500pa under the old insurance plan. The cost per $1,000 of cover rapidly increases with age, so by age 65 the cost will have risen to $2,129pa.

From age 65 onwards there will no longer by any TPD cover provided, but death cover will remain until age 75 (for as long as I am still employed).

The only downsides to this new insurance arrangement I can see are:

1. Life insurance is really of no material benefit to me (DW would receive a larger insurance payout if I die), although getting a larger TPD benefit if I suffer a major, permanent health 'event' (such as a stroke, heart attack of terminal illness that prevents any return to work) would be of benefit -- and means I don't have to think about taking out expensive trauma insurance.

2. The rapidly rising cost for older members means that there is yet another incentive for the company to focus any 'downsizing' (or redundancy) packages towards older employees. Then again, at my age a redundancy package would be almost of the same financial value as continuing to work until my planned retirement age. So I'm not too concerned about that aspect of the changes.

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Monday, 1 July 2024

Net Worth - JUN 2024

Chart updated to end of June in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $2,505 (+0.96%) to $262,336.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) increased by $24,638 (+1.39%) to $1,791,141. My total SGL contributions into my employer's super fund was $14,862 for the FY, leaving $12,638 remaining concessional contributions 'cap space' based on the $27,500 cap for CC last FY. I had made $13,300 personal after-tax contributions into my QSuper fund account (a small regular monthly contribution plus re-contributing the $12,000 TRIS pension payment I withdrew from our SMSF in June), so I have put in the notification to QSuper that I will be claiming a tax deduction for $12,638 of the contributions. This will result in the super account paying 15% contributions tax on $12,638 (ie. $1,895 tax) but I will not have to pay personal income tax (at around 32.5% marginal tax rate) on that amount (ie $4,107), so this will save a net total of about $2,212 in tax overall. Not a huge amount, but also not a bad return on just spending an hour or so doing the necessary 'paperwork' and transactions.

Est. valuation of our home (my half) increased by $5,700 (+0.49%) to $1,172,996. The 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) increased by $10,206 (+0.48%) to $2,148,987. A rise in the estimated valuation of my lakeside rural property offset a decline in the estimated valuation of my investment apartment in Sydney.

The outstanding balance of the investment property mortgage remains at $999,993 during the 'interest only' period of the mortgage. Another ~4 years remain of the 'interest only' period. During that time I will accumulate as much cash as possible in the offset account to reduce the effective loan balance.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) decreased by $768 (-1.76%) to $42,901.

I received confirmation of my withholding tax rate variation from the ATO last week and forwarded it on to the HR department to pass on to the outsourced payroll service. The payroll service *should* receive a direct notification from the ATO, but last year they had to be chased up and sent a copy of my notification from the ATO before taking action. Hopefully this year they will update the withholding rate straight away.

Overall, NW increased by $42,281 (+0.96%) to $4,426,368 during June.

For the full financial year, NW increased by $562,948 (+14.5%) which was quite impressive. This was around 5X my annual gross salary. It will be interesting to see what the next 12 months brings...

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Friday, 28 June 2024

Physical transformation update

Decided I might as well do my quarterly post update re weight loss and body transformation progress today, as it is already almost the end of the second quarter of 2024. Since hitting my all-time maximum weight (122.8 kg) on 5 July last year I have managed to reduce my weight by just over 30 kg (67 lbs) so far, to about 92kg. My goal from here is to lose another 10 or 15 kg of body fat without losing any more lean body mass (muscle). To do so I will need to increase my daily caloric intake slightly, and be more consistent about getting to the gym three times a week for weight training sessions, and doing some short sessions of HIIT indoor rowing (at about 85%-90% MHR) on my non-gym days. I have managed to get into a routine of walking 16K-24K steps/day, which seems pretty effective at maintaining a caloric deficit and ensuring most of my weight loss has been due to fat loss. I have found that not having my first meal of the day until noon has been quite easy (I don't feel particularly hungry when I wake up, so 'breakfast' was more of a habit that an urge to eat something), and it isn't too hard to stick with a rule to not eat anything after a reasonably early dinner around 6pm or so. This results in an 18:6 'intermittent fasting' regime that I find is easy to stick with, once you get out of the habit of 'snacking' after dinner. Apparently most of the longevity benefits of caloric restriction found in rodent studies may actually be achieved by simply restricting the food consumption period, rather than total calories per se. So having a daily 'fasting' period of 75% of every 24-hours may provide similar health benefits as 20%-30% caloric restriction, and may not have some of the adverse side effects (eg. sacropenia and increased sensitivity to the cold) that higher levels of caloric restriction might impose.

I had made little progress with my attempt to lose excess body weight up until 12 Feb, when I commenced the '90-day transformation challenge' that I had signed up for towards the end of 2023. While there was nothing revolutionary about my approach to diet and exercise since then, it did make me more aware of the need to consume quite a high level of protein while maintaining a caloric deficit (around 1g per lb of ideal body weight), and I switched from tracking my daily food intake 'on paper' (and then having to use a spreadsheet to calculate macros - which was quite a chore) to using the free version of the myfitnesspal app. Being able to just scan barcodes or search for a food item within the app, and then record the total macros at the end of the day made it much easier to keep an accurate track of my daily macros and keep an eye on my weekly averages. The impact of this change of approach is quite apparent in the chart of my daily morning weigh-ins:


I had been a little concerned that (according to my bathroom scales) my body fat percentage was remaining quite high, despite the constant weight loss. And using the body fat readings to calculate lean mass it seemed as if around 1/4 of my weight loss was due to decrease in lean mass. However, I had a new DEXA scan done last weekend, and it reported my actual body fat percentage as 17.9% (a *lot* better than the 27% being reported by my bathroom scales). The DEXA reading of body fat seems more realistic, as didn't seem to have lost any muscle mass since February, due to more regular weight training sessions and higher levels of protein intake.



My goal for the next six months is to lose the remaining 10-15kg of body weight to get down to a 'healthy' BMI value (and body fat around 10%-13%), while also (hopefully) putting on a bit of muscle mass via regular weight training. If I do manage to retain muscle mass during the next six months of more gradual weight loss I should end up weighing about 78-80kg with 10% or so body fat. I'll get another DEXA scan at the end of the year to see how things have worked out, and then for 2025 will focus on maintenance caloric intake while continuing with weight training, walking, indoor rowing, and sticking with the intermittent fasting routine. I'll also do another DEXA scan at the end of 2025 to check on progress. My long term goal will be to stick with 18:6 IF and maintain a health body mass of around 78-80kg with ~10% body fat.

My DEXA scans and key metrics from 2019 and 2024:


Still quite a way to go, as I have previously managed to get my weight down below 90kg on several occasions over the past 40 years, but then didn't have a plan for the transition to a long-term 'maintenance' program.

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Monday, 3 June 2024

Net Worth - MAY 2024

Chart updated to end of May in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $1,009 (+0.39%) to $259,831. Mostly due to making the quarterly contribution into the Investment Bond account, so not due to the market per se.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) increased by $34,725 (+2.01%) to $1,76,503 pretty much just bouncing back from last month's market decline.

Est. valuation of our home (my half) increased by $16,583 (+01.44%) to $1,167,296. The 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) decreased by -$52,954 (-2.42%) to $2,138,781. This reversed most of the exceptionally large rise last month, so is just a reversion to more typical price movement over the past two months combined. Goes to show that individual monthly estimates are quite 'noisy' so it is really only worthwhile looking at the general trend over periods of several years.

The outstanding balance of the investment property mortgage remains at $999,993 during the 'interest only' period of the mortgage. Another ~4 years remain of the 'interest only' period. During that time I will accumulate as much cash as possible in the offset account to reduce the effective loan balance.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) increased by $437 (+1.01%) to $43,669. Part of this rise was due to resuming my monthly 'savings plan' contributions -- adding $100/month to purchase $50 each of gold and silver. As I won't have to fund the monthly overhead expenses for my financial adviser registration/AFSL/ASIC levy etc. I will have some extra cashflow available. I will transfer most into my mortgage offset account every couple of months, but can afford to allocate a small part to my asset allocation into bullion.

I lodged my income tax variation application for FY2024-25 last week, so I should get the official response from the ATO by the end of June and will then have to pass it on the my employer's HR department to ensure payroll takes this into account and adjusts my PAYG tax withholding for next financial year (last time it took several months for them to eventually get the correct tax rate applied and had to have two attempts to make the correct payroll adjustment). I won't get as large a reduction in withholding tax as this FY, as I was fairly conservative regarding likely tax deductions for doordash business expenses, and didn't bother adjusting for the 'work from home' hourly rate deduction. So I'll probably end up with a small tax refund when I do my FY25 tax return.

Overall, NW decreased by -$200 (-0.00%) to $4,384,087 during May.

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Thursday, 9 May 2024

'Passed' my PhD 'confirmation of candidature' milestone -- with conditions

Since I have been enrolled as a part-time PhD candidate now for just over 12 months (time flies!) the 'confirmation of candidature' milestone was due. The normal timing is within 6 months for full time PhD students, but as a part-time enrolment mine was due at the end of 12 months. I had to prepare of more detailed 'research proposal', with a decent literature review and outline of the methods and data analysis techniques to be employed, the main research question(s) and hypotheses, and also present a short (20 minute) 'seminar' (powerpoint presentation) summarizing my research project.

The 'mock' presentation I did last month went OK, so I did the actual online seminar presentation today, which went quite well. I then had a meeting with the 'confirmation of candidature panel' (HDR admin and school staff, my princiapl and co-supervisors, and another 'independent' university academic) to go over my research proposal, do some Q&A, and get feedback from me (about my supervisor team) and from the supervisor and co-supervisors (about me).

There were some very helpful questions and suggestions on how to improve my research (some extra questions to include in my survey questionnaire), and some difficult questions (about the theoretical basis for my research, and about obtaining a random sample of survey participants rather than just a self-selected or biased sample). All good questions that I don't have all the answer to just yet.

Ultimately I "passed" the confirmation -- but with a couple of conditions. Mostly to do with including a more substantial (or any!)  theoretical basis/framework for my research in the research proposal, and to address the issue of possible sample bias with the approach I had proposed for obtaining survey participants. At least I have another 6 months to "dot all the i's and cross all the t's".

As I was sort of planning to do a 'thesis by publication' (where the core of the thesis is three or more published peer-reviewed academic papers based on the research) rather than a 'book' style thesis, the confirmation panel also indicated that I need to work out with my supervisor team the gist of what the papers should be about, draft titles and so forth. Shouldn't be an issue, but it seems a bit odd to be planning the title and content of research papers before having any data or results. But I suppose I already know the specific questions I *expect* my research to answer, so expressing that in the form of a series of paper outlines should not be too hard. I think I had the 'thesis by publication' route as my 'plan A' option (with the thought that if I didn't get the required number of papers accepted for publication I could revert back to the traditional 'thesis as a tome' option (with the results subsequently being published in one or more academic papers).

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Decided to switch from being a 'financial planner' to a 'wealth coach'

I finally decided that paying over $20K pa in licence fees to my AFSL, ASIC fees, etc. simply to remain on the FAR (financial advisers register) to be able to provide personal financial advice was not worth the expense. Having a full-time salaried job that was totally unrelated to financial planning, plus doing PhD candidature part-time, made it practically impossible to spend enough time and effort 'prospecting' for clients to even cover the 'running costs' (especially since the AFSL would keep another 20% of any fees charged to clients, plus I would have to pay a few hundred dollars per client to have my SOA documents reviewed by the AFSL (or else pay even more to have the SOAs drawn up by a contract paraplanner service).

Rather than provide personal financial advice (taking into account the client's situation and details to provide a written 'statement of advice' recommending particular financial products), I think I will just offer my services as a 'wealth coach' providing education regarding DIY financial planning techniques, retirement and investment projections, budgeting, information about the tax and superannuation system and common strategies, and all the other things that go into planning ones own financial strategy -- without recommending any particular financial products (or class of products) and making specific recommendations based on the details of the person's situation, or providing personalized taxation advice (otherwise you risk running foul of ASIC requirements to provide 'general' financial advice).

As there will be $0 overheads I should be able to do this 'for fun' and only charge a reasonable hourly rate, rather than the thousands of dollars it costs to provide compliant personal financial advice. I might even do some general topic youtube videos.

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Monday, 6 May 2024

End of Week 12 of '90 day transformation challenge'

Week 12 results: Weight Change during week: -2.0 kg

Avg Weight: 102.4 kg

Avg Body fat %: 31.0%

Avg BMI: 33.0

Avg daily cals: 1,569

Avg daily steps: 20,693

Avg caloric deficit/day: -1,219

Avg g protein/day: 164

Avg % cals from carbs: 28%

Avg % cals from fat: 28%

Only one week left in the '90 day transformation challenge'. My morning weight was 101.7 kg yesterday, with a body fat reading of 30.5%, so I should end this week close to 100kg and hopefully get under 30% body fat.

I've adjusted my daily meal plan slightly to be in line with the long term CRON-style food intake, with a bit higher protein content and total calories. Overall macros will be 190-210 g/day protein (~50% of calories), 130-135 g/day carbs (~33% of calories), and 30-35 g/day fats (~17% of calories) for a total of  around 1,650 - 1,800 cals/day. This would be about 20% CR compared to BMR if I continue to do daily walking and 3 sessions of weight training per week ongoing.

I expect my rate of weight loss will slowly diminish during the rest of the year, as reduced weight will decrease maintenance calorie requirement, and my metabolism will likely slow as body fat % reduces. I'm hoping to 'glide path' down to stabilize around 80kg weight with around 15% body fat by the end of the year, and then during 2025 should very gradually reduce body fat while retaining lean muscle mass, so the body fat % might slowly reduce to around 13%. I'm sure I'll need to tweak my diet and exercise regime somewhat in 2025.

From now on I'll just do a quarterly update on how well I've been sticking to my diet and exercise plan, and how things are progressing.

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Wednesday, 1 May 2024

Net Worth - APR 2024

Chart updated to end of April in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $3,139 (+1.23%) to $258,822. My portfolio was actually down during the past month, but I remembered that I have a small amount invested in an unlisted company and they emailed an updated valuation last month, so I have included that figure in my stock portfolio valuation.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) decreased by -$51,415 (-2.88%) to $1,731,778 in line with the market trend and our asset allocation.

Est. valuation of our home (my half) increased by $10,624 (+0.93%) to $1,150,713. The 'Other real estate' (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) increased by $77,656 (+3.67%) to $2,191,735. It appears that one of the '12-month trend' figures for median apartment prices in the suburb where my investment apartment is was recalculated, so this component of my estimate increased suddenly and pushed up the overall price estimate. I've no idea if this is a more or a less accurate estimate of what the market value of my investment apartment is,  but the estimate is what it is.

The outstanding balance of the investment property mortgage remains at $999,993 during the 'interest only' period of the mortgage. Another ~4 years remain of the 'interest only' period. During that time I will accumulate as much cash as possible in the offset account to reduce the effective loan balance.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account at Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) increased by $1,672 (+4.02%) to $43,232.

Overall, NW increased by $41,676 (+0.96%) to $4,384,287 during April.

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Monday, 29 April 2024

End of Week 11 of '90 day transformation challenge'

Only two more weeks left in the '90 day transformation challenge' period. After that I will commence the next 3-month 'phase' where I will increase caloric intake slightly and put more emphasis on weight training to try to only lose fat. That had been my original intention for the '90 day challenge' period, but I think I put a bit too much emphasis on caloric restriction and walking, and didn't do enough resistance training.

I didn't do any weight training sessions at the gym at all last week, so it isn't really a surprise that I am continuing to losing some lean mass and my body fat % isn't dropping as fast as I would like. I'll make sure I go to the gym tonight and also try to ensure my weight training sets are done to failure so I can check that the reps and/or weight is showing progressive increase over time.

Last week's stats were more in line with what I would expect for my current level of caloric restriction, so I don't need to adjust to meal plans or walking for this week, but do need to ensure I get enough sleep and do the three planned gym sessions each week. On the 'gym days' I'll probably aim for 15K steps rather than 20K.

Week 11 results: Weight Change during week: -1.5 kg

Avg Weight: 104.2 kg

Avg Body fat %: 32.2%

Avg BMI: 33.6

Avg daily cals: 1,592

Avg daily steps: 20,748

Avg daily caloric deficit: -1,238

Avg g protein/day: 168

Avg % cals from carbs: 30%

Avg % cals from fat: 24%

Overall I have lost 14.8 kg during the past 10 weeks. This is a rate of 1.39% of initial body weight per week, which is higher than the recommended 0.5%-1.0% per week for fat loss without losing lean mass at the same time. So far my weight loss appears to have been split between 75% fat loss and around 25% muscle loss. Hence the need to both ensure I go to the gym three times a week from now on, and also increase my caloric intake slightly (since just a 60 minute weight training session will require an extra 200-300 calories). Looks like adding an extra 150g portion of grilled chicken breast daily would be a good idea (which would provide an extra 50g of protein).

If my weight loss continued to be around 25% lean mass (muscle) and 75% fat, then by the time I reach my target weight of 78kg I would have lost another 25kg, but only 19 kg would be due to fat loss and 6 kg from loss of muscle mass. I would still end up with a respectable body fat of 18% in that scenario, but I would like to retain more muscle and get my body fat down to around 13%.

If my next 25kg of weight loss was entirely fat loss, I would reach 78 kg with a body fat of only 10%, which is quite a drastically low level (and probably unrealistic, unachievable, and probably not healthy at my age). But to reach 78 kg with 13% body fat my future weight loss (over the next 9 months or so) still needs to be about 90% fat loss, and only 10% muscle loss. So I need to focus more on retaining muscle mass. That is probably achievable if I just ease up slightly on the caloric restriction by eating a bit more protein and do a sufficient amount of resistance training each week.

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Monday, 22 April 2024

End of Week 10 of '90 day transformation challenge'

Seemed to hit a bit of a 'plateau' this past week. I did two weight training sessions at the gym, and on two other days did a stint on the waterrower, plus I did quite a lot of daily walking - averaging 19,640 ste[s [er day. I also stuck to my planned caloric deficit and macros, averaging 1,554 cals/day with an average of 162 cals/day of protein and 29% of the overall calories from carbohydrates and 27% from fat. Due to the increased amount of walking, the average calculated caloric deficit vs BMR was -1,256 cals/day. Howver, my weight loss for the week was only -0.9 kg and my body fat (according to the bathroom scales) actually increased by 2.2% from a week ago! Comparing the 7-day average weight and BF% for this past week vs the previous week gives a slightly more positive outcome -1.3kg change in average weight and -0.34% in average body fat reading. I suspect the normal week-to-week calculated changes were thrown off by getting woken up unusually early Sunday morning, so I only had 5 hrs sleep. That might have thrown off the morning weigh-in results somewhat. Anyhow, I won't change my diet or exercise routine this week, just keep sticking to 'the plan' and hope to see more typical results next week.

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Wednesday, 17 April 2024

Exercise snapshot

I've gotten into a routine of doing my daily walking in multiple blocks of 2K to 4K steps in a 15-30 minute sessions. Spread throughout the day this makes it quite easy to achieve my goal of at least 14K steps/day (up to around 20K on some days). I went to the gym for weight training yesterday, as I am now losing 1 - 1.5 kg/wk fairly consistently, but would like to rmitigate the lean mass loss from the current ~25% of the overall weight loss to under 20%. And the only way to achieve that is to do regular weight training sessions to achieve muscle hypertrophy. On the days I don't go to the gym for weight training I will do one (or more) 5 min 'high intensity' sessions on my Waterrower to boost aerobic fitness and VO2max. My performance is (so far) improving with each day of rowing, but I still tend to run out of 'puff' after about 5 mins (around the 1.4 km mark). Hopefully this will slowly improve until I can do the 2km distance in under 7 mins. Apparently the Waterrower is about 15% faster than the Concept2 machine used for competition events (and WR times), so achieving 2km in 7 mins on the Waterrower would still be considerably slower than the WR for the 60-64yo male category of around 6.5 mins.

I remembered to wear my Fitbit watch while rowing today, so did a record of a 5 minute rowing session and the start of a walking session about 30 minutes later:

It was interesting that my 'resting' heart rate while sitting in my home office working was around 72-78 bpm prior to the rowing session, but after the rowing it only dropped back to the 88-94 bpm range. This is why doing HIIT training is good for weight loss, as boosts your metabolism long after the brief exercise period has ended. The indoor rowing HR falls into the 'hard' exercise intensity band (for my age bracket), while the walking is 'light' exercise (which is good for fat loss without losing muscle mass).

While weight training my heart rate tends to sit in the 115-135 bpm range, which would be 'moderate' to 'hard' intensity for that hour or so.

From: https://www.heartonline.org.au/resources/calculators/target-heart-rate-calculator

I plan on sticking to this exercise routine from now on. But I will increase my caloric intake as I approach 80kg to slowly transition into 'maintenance' mode (this has been my biggest issue when previously losing weight -- I would tend to revert to 'ad libitum' eating after finishing (or giving up on) a diet, with snacks and junk food leading to a rapid regain of excess weight.

In the long term I hope to stick around 76-80kg body weight with around 12%-15% body fat, and ideally would do this on a modest 15%-20% 'CRON' (caloric restriction with optimal nutrition) food intake (for the possibly lifespan benefits). Just keeping to a healthy BMI and doing regular exercise will be a major improvement.

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Monday, 15 April 2024

End of Week 9 of '90 day transformation challenge'

Diet and walking was on track during the past week, resulting in a -1.3 kg change in weight for the week, and a -1.3% reduction in body fat percentage. The diet and walking resulted in an average daily caloric deficit (compared to estimated BMR) of -1,206 kcals/day on average during the past week. The charts of weight loss per week vs. average daily caloric deficit show an almost perfect match with the predicted loss of 1kg/wk for a 1,000 kcals/day (7,000 kcals/wk) deficit for the weeks where my diet was 'ongoing'. There was a higher rate of weight loss during the first weeks, and the week immediately after I had paused my diet and exercise regime due to my BPV episodes. The higher rate of weight loss can be explained by the usual 'water weight' loss that usually occurs when a diet commences (and overall bulk of food consumption decreases).

I still haven't resumed going to the gym for weight training sessions yet -- my new Waterrower arrived on Tuesday, so I did rowing sessions on Wed, Thu, and Sun instead of going to the gym. This week I'll try to doing rowing on the 'rest' days when I don't go to the gym for weight training. While indoor rowing is a good 'full body' workout, it is only 'bodyweight' and is more limited by aerobic capacity than muscle exhaustion. So far I have only managed to do one or two 6 minute sessions on the rower, covering 1.3km in about 260 seconds. Despite 'only' being 1.3 km, this pace is still about 30% slower than the WR pace for the 2km event for the 60-65yo age male open category, so I'll need to first improve my aerobic fitness and endurance to be able to row 2km at a decent stroke rate, and then (hopefully) improve my technique and strength to slowly improve my time for the 2km indoor row. The rowing can be quite strenuous, so I'll start wearing my fitbit watch while rowing so I can keep an eye on my maximum heart rate.

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Saturday, 13 April 2024

FFMI calculation

Watching a youtube video about weight loss and body building by Dr Michael Israetel I found a reference to FFMI (Fat-free Mass Index) calculator at https://mennohenselmans.com/ffmi-calculator/ that lets you enter current body measurements and get an estimate of your (theoretical) drug-free genetic potential for lean muscle mass. At my age my maximum muscle potential will be considerably less than this, but it is good as a guideline.

My current measurements entered into the app are: (male, metric units, goal is lean muscle mass for fat reduction from 30% to 14%):

*height 176 cm

*weight 106 kg

*wrist circumference 19 cm

*ankle circumference 26 cm (unusually thick - and I measured my smaller leg - the other has some odema)

*torso circumference 115 cm

*upper arm circumference 41 cm

*forearm circumference 34 cm

*neck circumference 42 cm

*thigh circumference 59 cm

*calf circumference 43 cm

Calculated Results:

Lean body mass left to gain 14.6 kg (need to do more weight training!)

Fat mass left to lose 17.3 kg (more if I don't add the above muscle)

If I don't put on any lean mass, this means losing about 32 kg of fat to reduce weight to 74kg, which is about right). Ideally I can add some lean mass, especially on my thighs.

Evaluation of current physique and possible improvements are:

Neck 6% overdeveloped

Torso 3% overdeveloped (probably overestimated due to fat on my chest and back)

upper arms: perfect (I doubt this as I need to shed fat and gain muscle here)

forearms 4% overdeveloped (again, probably inflated due to excess body fat)

thigh 11% underdeveloped (I've noticed my thighs are not as thick as when I used to do weight training -- need to use the leg extension machine more)

calf 2% underdeveloped (more time doing calf raises)


Potential gains:

Torso max 125 cm (more chest and lat work needed)

Upper arm 46 cm (more bicep curls and tricep work)

Forearm 37 cm (some forearms curls)

Neck 45 cm (shoulder shrugs?)

Thigh 75 cm (definitely need more leg work)

Calf 50 cm (more and heavier calf raises)


Max natural bodyweight 103.3 kg. Normalized FFMI 24.2 (24.9 is upper limit drug-free for most people's genetics) Max natural recorded is 28.0

The app provides a cool visual summary of the above results:

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Monday, 8 April 2024

End of Week 8 of '90 day transformation challenge'

Only did about 10K steps/day for the first two days of the week, but then picked up and by the end of the week the average daily step count was on target. My average daily protein and % calories from fat and carbs was also what I am aiming for. However, I didn't go to the gym to do weight training at all during the past week, which resulted in my weight continuing to drop but my % body fat not decreasing. Overall my weight loss have been about 72% fat and 28% lean mass, so I really need to restart my regular weight training to preserve muscle mass while in caloric deficit.

My progress so far:

         Body Recomposition       Averages (per day)

Week#    Wt (kg)    Body Fat %    cals    g prot    % carbs    % fat    steps/day

1        -3.4       -1.1%         1,348     85      35%        39%      11,118

2        -1.0       -0.4%         1,378     92      39%        31%      12.126

3        -2.3       -0.8%         1,528    121      27%        26%      12,358

4        -0.1       -0.5%         2,223    122      41%        30%       6,459

5        +1.1       +0.4%         2,457    117      51%        29%       1,107

6        -3.1       -1.2%         1,856    114      50%        22%      10,550

7        -0.9       +0.2%         1,782    153      40%        28%      14,293

8        -1.1       -0.0%         1,594    157      29%        26%      15,770

DS1 didn't want the elliptical machine, so we just shifted it into the garage for the time being, so I'll have room in the loungeroom for the Joroto Waterrower when it arrives. The M280 model I bought comes with bluetooth (BLE) connectivity and FTMS (Fitness Machine Service) device support, so I am hoping to be able to data log workout using python on my laptop. After trying to find some existing examples for people who had already developed code for this (to closest I could find was specific to certain models of stationary bike machines), I resorted to asking ChatGPT to "write a python script to connect to a FTMS device using bluetooth" and it came up with a script to connect using pygatt and print the received data. Apparently all I will need to do is specify the MAC address of my FTMS device (the waterrower). We'll see if it works. If it does, I should be able to run the python script within excel to import the data during an exercise session and chart relevant details (eg. heartrate, stroke rate, distance etc.). If I can't get the python working in excel I can always do the required charting in python using matplotlib or similar.

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