Installed COVIDsafe

The Australian government has finally released it's contract tracing app for iPhones and Android phones, called COVIDsafe. After all the usual knee-jerk privacy paranoia it turns out that the App doesn't track your location or store data on some government database, it simply records when you get within blue-tooth range of another smart phone that has the App installed, and the data stays on your phone until you choose to give it to the health department's contact tracers (IF you catch Covid-19 and have a positive test result). If you never get Covid-19 before the pandemic ends you won't ever be asked to share the data, and it can be deleted at any time you choose (eg. when the pandemic is over).

The installation was quick and easy. The only trouble I had was that I had to use google to find the government health department page to get the link to the app in Google Play - searching for 'CovidSafe' within the App store failed to bring it up!). I did initially think that the registration/PIN wasn't working when I didn't get sent the PIN via SMS -- but it turned out that I'd just entered my phone number incorrectly. Hopefully enough Australians install COVIDsafe you the country to be able to quickly contract trace any future instances of community transmission. That way we'll be able to ease restrictions and minimise social and economic disruption. It might turn out that we are the 'lucky country' yet again.

ps. If Australia and NZ manage to get on top of Covid-19 and open up trans-tasman travel, we might go skiing in NZ for our next overseas vacation. It will probably be the only place Aussies can go overseas for quite a while...

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The World is a giant laboratory at the moment

One positive aspect of the many varied approaches being taken around the world to social isolation, lockdowns, business closures and re-openings, testing rates etc. is that the will be an abundance of data available for researchers to analyse regarding what are the best approaches to limit the spread of a pandemic such as Covid-19, where the best trade-off of restrictions lies in terms of health benefits vs. economic costs. And which methods and timing for easing restrictions and getting back to a 'new normal' are the "best" way in different circumstances. PhD students in economics and health sciences (and sociology) will be using the data for their theses for decades to come.

Of course this isn't an experiment you'd choose to do, but it will put the world in a better position to be able to handle the next pandemic in a more informed and effective manner (hopefully).

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Flattening the curve isn't the end of Covid-19, just the beginning

After initially being too blase about Covid-19 (thinking it was safely restricted to just China), countries swiftly ramped up a series of restrictions to try to prevent the spread of Covid-19 as it spread across the globe. At a huge economic and social cost. But now that several countries have succeeded in 'flattening the curve', many countries are already looking at easing restrictions (some prematurely - such as the US). That may be sensible in countries that are islands (or island continents) and have closed their borders (such as Australia and New Zealand) and have reduced the spread of Covid-19 to a handful of new cases per day (so 100% contact tracing may be feasible), but it seems a recipe for disaster in countries that are still detecting thousands of new cases each day, even it that rate of spread is constant and no longer increasing exponentially. After all, although the 2,314,621 confirmed Covid-19 cases reported in the WHO Sitrep 91 seems to be a large number, it is only 0.03% (!) of the world's population. Which means that the other 99.97% of people worldwide (essentially everyone) still has no immunity from Covid-19, and we are still months (or years) away from more effective treatments for those seriously ill from Covid-19, or a mass-produced (and effective and long-lasting) vaccine.

So, unless easing restrictions is done *very* carefully, and with massive amounts of continual testing and monitoring, and with governments ready and prepared to bring back restrictions as needed (which might be more difficult after the populace has been through one round of restrictions and was told things are getting better), things could go very bad (again) very quickly.

And don't forget that being tested and found negative simply means they were (probably) virus-free at the time of testing. They are still at risk of catching (and spreading) the virus after the test was done. Having tested negative last week doesn't mean you might not have been exposed since, and be currently asymptomatically spreading the virus...

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Is Donald Trump killing the people who voted for him?

The SMH reported today that some US States with Republican Governors are planning to reopen gyms, churches, bowling alleys, tattoo parlours, hairdressers and nail salons. Given that new Covid-19 cases are being detected at a great rate in the US, despite limited testing, and that Covid-19 is quite lethal to those that are older and male (ie. key Republican voter demographics) this would seem likely to kill off quite a few Trump supporters. Then again, as poor, black voters are also more at risk of dying from Covid-19 due to comorbidities than WASPs, it may kill off more Democrat voters than Republicans?

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