Has the other shoe finally dropped?

It looks like the US stock market might have finally woken up to the fact that Covid-19 isn't going to "go away real soon" and that simply ignoring it and refusing the "shutter the economy" doesn't mean that life can go on as normal (with minimal economic impact). The reality is that if you enforce strict lock-downs and close high risk businesses when there is a surge in cases, you get an immediate economic hit, but you have a chance to get the spread under control and loosen the controls within a few weeks (or months). But if you let "business as usual" continue during a surge in Covid-19 cases, the health situation will eventually become so dire (with hospitals reaching capacity and deaths increasing rapidly) that people decide for themselves to stay home and "shelter in place". The end result is still a big hit to economic activity, but you get their with an out-of-control pandemic and it takes a lot longer to get things under control.

It looks like the US stock market has woken up to this reality and realized that an effective vaccine might still be months away, and even then it will take many more months for enough people to get vaccinated for the pandemic to be brought under control. So the US economy is likely to suffer for a prolonged period (no "V-shaped recovery") which makes the stock market performance since March "irrational".

The ASX200 is currently down by about 11% compared to the start of 2020, whereas the S&P500 is currently about 5% higher. The Australian market usually goes down where there is significant weakness in the US stock market, so we may see a good buying opportunity in the Australian stock market in coming months if the US market finally 'capitulates' to the pandemic's economic impact.

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Betting on the US election

It's quite surreal watching the US Presidential election campaign from afar - the disconnect between much of what the US President says and the reality of the terrible loss of life being experienced due to Covid-19 in the US does not seem to be reflected in the voting intentions showing up in US opinion polls. One would think that in this sort of situation a sitting President would be much further behind than the ~8% the polls suggest. There must be a huge number of voters that simply vote Democrat or Republican regardless of who the candidate is or the current economic/health situation or the candidates policy details (not that US Presidential elections appear to give much weight to actual policy platform details).

The voter intention polls got the outcome of the last election very wrong, so the current poll numbers need to be treated with caution, but I still find it hard to believe that Trump can claw his way back into contention this late in the campaign, especially as a large portion of US voters have already cast their ballot via pre-polling. So I decided I'd place a small wager ($10) on Biden to win the 2020 Election, and I also put another $5 bet on Biden getting between 49-52% of the popular vote, and another $5 on him achieving between 52-55% of the popular vote.

We'll see how it turns out, but I'm guessing there might be a small 'shy Trumper' effect that reduces the actual popular vote for Biden down to about 51-53% in the final wash-up.

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The new Australia Vanguard online access really, really sucks!

I've been a Vanguard customer for decades, and currently have both personal investment and our SMSF investments in some Vanguard Index Funds.

Up until this week, we have perfectly good online access to our accounts, able to access transaction history, daily unit prices, and pdf copies of statements etc.

Then they forced all existing retail customers onto their new 'personal' platform, and closed the existing funds to new investments. So, after wasting time 'activating' my new SMSF login using a customised link they sent us, and having to provide three different types of ID details (even though we are existing account holders and provided ID when we opened the accounts, and already had online access via their old platform), it turned out that I'll also have to provide a certified copy of one of the IDs!

Given Covid-19 I'm not going to queue up somewhere to get a photocopy of my ID and then get it certified by a JP (I'm a JP but aren't allowed to certify copies of my own documents - go figure). So I've sent in a jpg of my new digital driver licence (which in NSW the police are happy enough to take as ID - they simply scan the QR code). Authorised businesses can also go online to check the details for a drivers licence number, but Vanguard obviously hasn't bothered to do that (they did have some ID checking built in to the account activation process, but it apparently didn't work - probably because they ask for your name in one screen (where I entered my full name) and then ask separately for middle and surname (and there was no option to 'go back', so it probably failed the automated ID checking process. And no option to try again, or fix typos etc.

The new website is also a total waste of space - the unit price data is harder to navigate to than in the old website, and the whole thing seems to have just been 'dumbed down' to make it mobile phone friendly (and doesn't display well on  laptop). Modern website design autodetects whether the user is browsing using a phone or larger screen, and automatically send appropriate html for the device.

The new system also has only replace having to send in faxes (or mail) for investment instructions (eg. switch from one fund into another) with the ability to send forms electronically via their 'secure message' system once you log in to your account. Most modern financial product websites allow you do transact securely online once you have logged in - eg. switch fund options using an online tool, NOT still requiring investors to fill in forms and send them in to be processed!

Overall, the new Vanguard website and personal investor fund is highly disappointing, and a real pain for existing investors to switch to and activate...

Not surprisingly the new website is displaying a message that they are taking 5 or more days to respond to queries and have long delays on phone enquiries - apparently a lot of their customers aren't happy with the migration.

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The sexist double standard applied to female politicians

It's been a few years since Australia had its first Female PM, Julia Gillard. While I generally prefer have a Liberal government to a Labor government (for policy reasons), there was nothing particularly bad about Julia Gillard as a PM. But it was amazing the amount of criticism that was simply rampant sexism (eg. rather than "Dump Gillard" we had protestors waving "Ditch the Witch" placards).

The latest example of the double standard often applied to female politicians is the criticism of the NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian (who is female and single) for having a 'close personal relationship' with a former NSW politician who was found to be abusing his position for (attempted) financial gain, and was dumped and left politics in 2018 after a previous ICAC investigation. There is no evidence (yet) that the NSW PM acted improperly on a professional level, just that she had a relationship with someone known to be 'shady'.

Yes, in an ideal world politicians would only have relationships with persons of impeccable character, and would immediately dump anyone that they found had the slightest character flaw. But is this really expected of male politicians? No. So why expect female politicians to apply higher standards to what are, after all, private considerations regarding who they have a relationship with.

It may yet turn out that the NSW Premier acted improperly (eg. gave Darryl Maguire information or support in his dodgy business dealings) and has to exit politics, but so far it appears that she has done nothing wrong herself. The days of the worth of a female professional being at all affected by who their partner is should be long gone. Gladys is doing a great job as NSW Premier during the Covid-19 pandemic, and who she is (or isn't) dating should be irrelevant.

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