Monday 1 May 2023

Net Worth APR 2023

Chart updated to end of April in sidebar.

Stocks/cash increased $4,760.(2.70%) to $180,807.

Retirement savings (SMSF etc) increased by $27,822 (1.87%) to $1,515,113.

Est. of Home valuation (my half) decreased by -$18.137 (-1.72%) to $1,036,445. Overall Sydney real estate index had not dropped during April, so it must be specific to the Northern Beaches part of Sydney. RBA is 'expected' to keep interest rates on hold for another month, waiting to see the impact of the previous rises on household spending (mortgage repayments take a month or two to reflect changes in the overnight cash rate), The monthly estimate of 12-month inflation rate for Australia has dipped to 6.3%, lower than the 'consensus' forecast of 6.5% and significantly lower than the inflation rate figures for Jan (7.4%) or Feb (6.8%). This is the third straight month of decreasing annual inflation rate, and the lowest monthly figure since May 2022. If inflation keeps trending downwards it could be approaching 4% by the end of 2023 and interest rates could remain on hold for the remainder of this year. The 'big four' Australia banks are predicting either one more 0.25% rise (CBA) before interest rates peak, or that interest rates have already hit their peak for this tightening cycle. The banks are predicting between one and four 0.25% rate cuts to follow in 2024 (but such 'predictions' are incredibly unreliable). My guess is that rates may remain on hold until inflation approaches the 3% upper bound of the RBA target band (2%-3% inflation), and that real estate prices in Sydney may be flat for the next couple of years (which would mean a further 5%-10% decline in real terms),

Other real estate (my 'lake house' and the investment apartment) decreased by -$25,176 (-1.21%) to $2,058,506 reversing the estimated increase of last month. 

The outstanding balance of the investment property mortgage remains at $1MM (the loan is 'interest only' for 5 years). Interest rate is currently 5.79%.

Other assets (my online depository bullion account and Perth Mint, and the bullion value of my gold and silver proof coin collection) increased by $1,146 (3.19%) to $37,108.

Overall, NW decreased by -$9,587 (-0.25%) to $3,835,979 during April.

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