Friday, 3 November 2006

The Benefits of Compulsory Personal Retirement Accounts

A major concern that has arisen throughout the developed countries in recent years has been in relation to the aging of the population, with the implication that unfunded pension schemes will become unsustainable as the number of tax-payers supporting each pensioner gets less and less. Some countries began to address this issue by the introduction of private pension arrangements many years ago - for example, in Australia, compulsory superannuation savings were introduced in 1992. Prior to this only 58% of full-time workers, and around 20% of part-time workers had a private pension account (1998 figures).

Although compulsory superannuation has now been in place for 14 years, the median superannuation balance of female baby boomers in 2004 was only $8,000 (males $30,700).

The picture would not be so bleak for baby boomers that have been working full-time, especially women. The following table shows the amount that baby boomers working full-time since the SGL was introduced would have contributed into their personal retirement account:

avg female average F/T male average F/T
FY SGL rate wage SGL amount wage SGL amount
92/93 3.75% $27,809.60 $1,042.86 $34,814.00 $1,305.53
93/94 4.00% $28,750.80 $1,150.03 $35,973.60 $1,438.94
94/95 4.50% $29,884.40 $1,344.80 $37,689.60 $1,696.03
95/96 5.50% $31,059.60 $1,708.28 $39,431.60 $2,168.74
96/97 6.00% $32,448.00 $1,946.88 $40,794.00 $2,447.64
97/98 6.00% $33,716.80 $2,023.01 $42,400.80 $2,544.05
98/99 7.00% $35,094.80 $2,456.64 $43,914.00 $3,073.98
99/00 7.00% $36,238.80 $2,536.72 $29,286.40 $2,050.05
00/01 8.00% $38,183.60 $3,054.69 $46,800.00 $3,744.00
01/02 8.00% $40,190.80 $3,215.26 $49,306.40 $3,944.51
02/03 9.00% $42,088.80 $3,787.99 $51,849.20 $4,666.43
03/04 9.00% $44,465.20 $4,001.87 $54,932.80 $4,943.95
04/05 9.00% $46,384.00 $4,174.56 $57,226.00 $5,150.34

If the fund had been conservatively invested (earning, say, 5% pa), then typical current balances for female and male baby boomers who have worked full-time since compulsory Superannuation was introduced would now be around:
Female: $31,628.53
Male: $38,212.73

The actual balance will vary for each person, depending on the fees charged by their superannuaton fund and what investment options they had chosen.

The main problem facing the baby boomers is that a) they didn't start work in 1992 - even the youngest boomers were in their 30's when universal private retirement accounts were introduced, and b) the SGL was phased in, so the first 12 years of compulsory super were only equivalent to 9.5 years at the current rate of 9%. SO the typical boomer who has worked F/T since 1992 only has a super balance equivalent to a 30 year old Gen X/Y/Zer. Some people think that the SGL rate needs to be higher than 9% over a persons working life to accumulate enough to self-fund a comfortable retirement lifestyle (say 12-15%)

Hopefully, the increase in average personal retirement account balances at retirement age over the next 30 years will match the necessary reductions in age pension benefits paid by the government. The fairest method would seem to be to restrict pension entitlements (via assets and income tests) and reduce benefits over time, with the new rules being 'grandfathered' so they phase in with age. This sort of restriction has already been done with the phasing in of raising the "retirement age" from 55 to 60, based on each persons date of birth.

Of course, in countries such as the US and UK where the move to personal retirement accounts has started later, there is going to be a much bigger "gap" to be be funded while state pensions are phased out self-funded retirement accounts start to accumulate meaningful balances.

Blog Monetization: PPP forums

For anyone using PayPerPost it's worth checking out their forums for info on hot topics.

Amongst the interesting tidbits are the following stats at the bottom of the forums index:
"Our users have posted a total of 7515 articles
We have 318 registered users"

Honestly, I'd thought they were bigger than that already ;)

I haven't read many of the forums yet, but the discussion about PPP promoting use a disclosure statement is very interesting. I was especially tickled that an advertising was pulling their business from PPP because of the "push" for disclosure! They said they "...only want honest reviews of my site", but at the same time were aghast that bloggers might reveal that it was a sponsored post... I think they need to reconsider the meaning of the word "honest"!

Both the Rich and Poor got richer - but it's all relative

A study by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling at the University of Canberra has shown that the average Australian was 25 per cent better off in 2006 than in 1996, after adjusting for inflation.

While the rich did get richer over the past decade, so did nearly everyone else. Both the richest 10% and poorest 10% of Australians increased their real incomes by about a quarter. However, for the poorest this meant $29 more per week, after inflation, compared to $256 more per week, after inflation, for the rich. The group that made the biggest gains was actually the "middle income" group which gained about 30% in real terms over the decade.

One group that did fall behind the rest was second poorest 10% of the Australian population, mainly age pensioners, who failed to keep pace with everyone else, but still managed a real gain of 14%. This is likely to be a persistant trend as the government struggles to fund aged pensions as the ratio of taxpayers to aged pensions drops with the aging population - the number of Australians aged oved 60 is projected to double by 2040.

Thursday, 2 November 2006

A possible alternative to Prosper.com - Zopa

Zopa (Zone of Possible Agreement) is another peer-to-peer online investment"> system similar to Propser.com. Zopa is currently operational in the UK, and intends to launch in the US soon.

Exact details of how it will work in the USA aren't available yet, but the UK version has a different slant to lending compared to Prosper.com - rather than bidding to lend a certain amount to a particular borrower at a rate, with Zopa you pick a term and market (credit risk group) to lend some money to, and pick a rate that you'll accept. Lenders in that term/market will then accept loans at the lowest available rate - so if your offered rate is the lowest available it will be taken up by borrowers. The UK version doesn't let you pick particular borrowers to lend to, but also seems to automate the diversification process better than Prosper.com

It will be interesting to see how Prosper.com and Zopa do in the long run.